League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Chesterfield
10th on points, with 19. 1st on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 27.65 xG for, 15.34 against, goal difference +3.
- Season xGD
- +12.31
- GF minus xG
- -3.65
- Last 10 xGD
- +9.85
- xG per match
- 1.98
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.98
- xG against / match
- 1.10
- xGD / match
- +0.88
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.01
- xG against / match
- 1.02
- xGD / match
- +0.98
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.78
- xG against / match
- 0.90
- xGD / match
- +0.88
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.29 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.85. Away attack 1.22 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.86.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 45.5% (6/5), draw 23.9% (54/17), away 30.5% (41/18). Expected home goals 1.67, expected away goals 1.32. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
Home side
Bristol Rovers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.69
- Venue attack rating
- 1.21
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.19 for · 3.19 against
24 Oct · Home
Swindon Town0–0xG 1.51 for · 1.50 against
20 Oct · Home
Salford City1–2xG 1.51 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 1.65 against
10 Oct · Home
Barnet1–3xG 2.03 for · 2.10 against
Away side
Chesterfield
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.64
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.25
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.88
- Venue attack rating
- 1.22
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chesterfield’s side.
30 Oct · Away
xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.98 for · 0.67 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.34 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.35 for · 0.27 against
10 Oct · Away
Crawley Town2–2xG 1.58 for · 1.74 against
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.32.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol Rovers expected goals 1.67, Chesterfield 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol Rovers goals down, Chesterfield goals across.
| Bristol Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 30.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Chesterfield’s side.
30 Oct · Away
xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.98 for · 0.67 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.34 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.35 for · 0.27 against
10 Oct · Away
Crawley Town2–2xG 1.58 for · 1.74 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 3.13 for · 0.52 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 2.62 for · 0.91 against
19 Sept · Home
York City2–0xG 2.11 for · 0.40 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 2.24 for · 1.08 against
5 Sept · Home
Barnet3–3xG 2.41 for · 2.40 against
1 Sept · Home
Gillingham1–1xG 2.05 for · 0.56 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.10 for · 2.95 against
22 Aug · Away
Salford City1–0xG 2.27 for · 0.51 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 2.17 for · 1.11 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | A | Newport County | 1-4 | 1.30 | 1.30 | -0.30 |
| 24 Oct | H | Crewe Alexandra | 5-1 | 1.98 | 0.67 | +3.02 |
| 20 Oct | H | Colchester United | 1-1 | 2.34 | 0.92 | -1.34 |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0-1 | 0.35 | 0.27 | -0.35 |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2-2 | 1.58 | 1.74 | +0.42 |
| 3 Oct | H | Tranmere Rovers | 4-2 | 3.13 | 0.52 | +0.87 |
| 26 Sept | A | Cheltenham Town | 1-2 | 2.62 | 0.91 | -1.62 |
| 19 Sept | H | York City | 2-0 | 2.11 | 0.40 | -0.11 |
| 12 Sept | A | Oldham Athletic | 2-1 | 2.24 | 1.08 | -0.24 |
| 5 Sept | H | Barnet | 3-3 | 2.41 | 2.40 | +0.59 |
| 1 Sept | H | Gillingham | 1-1 | 2.05 | 0.56 | -1.05 |
| 29 Aug | A | Rotherham United | 1-2 | 1.10 | 2.95 | -0.10 |
| 22 Aug | A | Salford City | 1-0 | 2.27 | 0.51 | -1.27 |
| 15 Aug | H | Fleetwood Town | 0-1 | 2.17 | 1.11 | -2.17 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
The model: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol Rovers expected goals 1.67, Chesterfield 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol Rovers goals down, Chesterfield goals across.
| Bristol Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 30.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.23
Home
49.3%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
27.1%
62/23 (3.69)
The model: Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 1.74, Shrewsbury Town 1.23: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Shrewsbury Town goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 49.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 27.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Swindon Town v Chesterfield
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.54
Home
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
Draw
24.7%
55/18 (4.05)
Away
41.6%
31/22 (2.41)
The model: Swindon Town v Chesterfield
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.36, Chesterfield 1.54: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Chesterfield goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 33.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 41.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Chesterfield v Exeter City
Expected home goals 1.89 · expected away goals 0.78
Home
63.7%
4/7 (1.57)
Draw
21.5%
51/14 (4.64)
Away
14.8%
75/13 (6.77)
The model: Chesterfield v Exeter City
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 1.89, Exeter City 0.78: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Exeter City goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 63.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.5%
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 14.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 12:30 · Home
Chesterfield v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 2.20 · expected away goals 1.38
Home
56.2%
18/23 (1.78)
Draw
20.3%
51/13 (4.92)
Away
23.5%
13/4 (4.25)
The model: Chesterfield v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 2.20, Grimsby Town 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 56.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.3%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 69.3%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
