League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Rotherham United
22nd on points, with 12. 13th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 19.85 xG for, 19.27 against, goal difference -7.
- Season xGD
- +0.58
- GF minus xG
- -1.85
- Last 10 xGD
- -2.83
- xG per match
- 1.42
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.42
- xG against / match
- 1.38
- xGD / match
- +0.04
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.17
- xG against / match
- 1.45
- xGD / match
- -0.28
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.11
- xG against / match
- 1.80
- xGD / match
- -0.69
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.03 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.19. Away attack 0.98 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.83.
No fixture for Rotherham United in the next eight days.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Rotherham United’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–2xG 0.33 for · 0.89 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.62 for · 1.79 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.59 for · 2.23 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.28 for · 1.86 against
10 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–4xG 1.38 for · 1.86 against
3 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–1xG 0.47 for · 2.18 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 0.64 for · 0.35 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.28 for · 1.06 against
12 Sept · Home
Salford City3–3xG 2.46 for · 1.45 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 0.63 for · 0.84 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 2.02 for · 0.74 against
29 Aug · Home
Chesterfield2–1xG 2.95 for · 1.10 against
22 Aug · Home
York City1–1xG 1.00 for · 2.32 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 2.20 for · 0.60 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Swindon Town | 1-2 | 0.33 | 0.89 | +0.67 |
| 24 Oct | H | Shrewsbury Town | 3-3 | 1.62 | 1.79 | +1.38 |
| 20 Oct | H | Newport County | 2-2 | 1.59 | 2.23 | +0.41 |
| 17 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 0-2 | 1.28 | 1.86 | -1.28 |
| 10 Oct | H | Gillingham | 1-4 | 1.38 | 1.86 | -0.38 |
| 3 Oct | A | Exeter City | 0-1 | 0.47 | 2.18 | -0.47 |
| 26 Sept | H | Crewe Alexandra | 1-1 | 0.64 | 0.35 | +0.36 |
| 19 Sept | A | Northampton Town | 1-0 | 1.28 | 1.06 | -0.28 |
| 12 Sept | H | Salford City | 3-3 | 2.46 | 1.45 | +0.54 |
| 5 Sept | A | Bristol Rovers | 0-1 | 0.63 | 0.84 | -0.63 |
| 1 Sept | A | Tranmere Rovers | 2-2 | 2.02 | 0.74 | -0.02 |
| 29 Aug | H | Chesterfield | 2-1 | 2.95 | 1.10 | -0.95 |
| 22 Aug | H | York City | 1-1 | 1.00 | 2.32 | 0.00 |
| 15 Aug | A | Cheltenham Town | 1-2 | 2.20 | 0.60 | -1.20 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Grimsby Town v Rotherham United
Expected home goals 1.78 · expected away goals 1.05
Home
54.5%
5/6 (1.84)
Draw
23.3%
79/24 (4.29)
Away
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
The model: Grimsby Town v Rotherham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Grimsby Town expected goals 1.78, Rotherham United 1.05: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Grimsby Town goals down, Rotherham United goals across.
| Grimsby Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 54.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 22.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Rotherham United v Oldham Athletic
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.72
Home
36.1%
23/13 (2.77)
Draw
22.9%
37/11 (4.36)
Away
41.0%
13/9 (2.44)
The model: Rotherham United v Oldham Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Rotherham United expected goals 1.60, Oldham Athletic 1.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rotherham United goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Rotherham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 36.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 41.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
47.6%
11/10 (2.10)
Draw
24.0%
19/6 (4.17)
Away
28.4%
53/21 (3.52)
The model: Barnet v Rotherham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.68, Rotherham United 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Rotherham United goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 47.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 28.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Rotherham United v Walsall
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 1.84
Home
37.5%
5/3 (2.67)
Draw
21.9%
82/23 (4.56)
Away
40.6%
22/15 (2.46)
The model: Rotherham United v Walsall
The model
What the expected goals say
Rotherham United expected goals 1.76, Walsall 1.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rotherham United goals down, Walsall goals across.
| Rotherham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 37.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.9%
- Walsall win, per cent
- 40.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 69.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Port Vale v Rotherham United
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
51.2%
21/22 (1.95)
Draw
26.2%
45/16 (3.81)
Away
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
The model: Port Vale v Rotherham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.49, Rotherham United 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Rotherham United goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 51.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 22.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
