League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Newport County
14th on points, with 18. 14th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 17.12 xG for, 18.44 against, goal difference +3.
- Season xGD
- -1.32
- GF minus xG
- +2.88
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.76
- xG per match
- 1.22
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.22
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- -0.09
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 1.11
- xGD / match
- +0.28
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.51
- xG against / match
- 1.15
- xGD / match
- +0.36
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.94 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.93. Away attack 0.88 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.98.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.7% (35/23), draw 27.4% (61/23), away 33.0% (49/24). Expected home goals 1.29, expected away goals 1.15. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Home side
Crewe Alexandra
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.11
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crewe Alexandra’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Barnet1–1xG 0.72 for · 0.54 against
24 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–5xG 0.67 for · 1.98 against
20 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–2xG 0.93 for · 1.83 against
17 Oct · Home
Rochdale3–2xG 1.69 for · 0.75 against
10 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.61 for · 0.64 against
Away side
Newport County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.99
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.36
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newport County’s side.
30 Oct · Home
Chesterfield4–1xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.56 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.23 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
York City1–1xG 1.18 for · 1.57 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.61 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.29, Newport County 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 39.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.4%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 33.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Newport County’s side.
30 Oct · Home
Chesterfield4–1xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.56 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.23 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
York City1–1xG 1.18 for · 1.57 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.61 against
3 Oct · Away
Gillingham0–0xG 1.22 for · 0.28 against
26 Sept · Home
Grimsby Town2–1xG 1.23 for · 2.00 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 0.59 for · 0.65 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 2.64 for · 1.06 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 0.32 for · 0.45 against
1 Sept · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.42 for · 2.28 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.06 for · 0.94 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.66 for · 3.99 against
15 Aug · Home
Rochdale3–0xG 1.15 for · 0.16 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 4-1 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +2.70 |
| 24 Oct | A | Cheltenham Town | 0-1 | 1.52 | 1.56 | -1.52 |
| 20 Oct | A | Rotherham United | 2-2 | 2.23 | 1.59 | -0.23 |
| 17 Oct | H | York City | 1-1 | 1.18 | 1.57 | -0.18 |
| 10 Oct | H | Colchester United | 1-0 | 1.60 | 0.61 | -0.60 |
| 3 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0-0 | 1.22 | 0.28 | -1.22 |
| 26 Sept | H | Grimsby Town | 2-1 | 1.23 | 2.00 | +0.77 |
| 19 Sept | A | Accrington Stanley | 0-0 | 0.59 | 0.65 | -0.59 |
| 12 Sept | H | Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | 2.64 | 1.06 | -1.64 |
| 5 Sept | A | Northampton Town | 0-1 | 0.32 | 0.45 | -0.32 |
| 1 Sept | A | Salford City | 1-2 | 0.42 | 2.28 | +0.58 |
| 29 Aug | H | Tranmere Rovers | 2-2 | 1.06 | 0.94 | +0.94 |
| 22 Aug | A | Bristol Rovers | 3-5 | 0.66 | 3.99 | +2.34 |
| 15 Aug | H | Rochdale | 3-0 | 1.15 | 0.16 | +1.85 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15
Home
39.7%
35/23 (2.52)
Draw
27.4%
61/23 (3.66)
Away
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
The model: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.29, Newport County 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 39.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.4%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 33.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Newport County v Swindon Town
Expected home goals 1.77 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
23.3%
33/10 (4.30)
Away
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
The model: Newport County v Swindon Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Newport County expected goals 1.77, Swindon Town 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newport County goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Newport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Newport County win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 19.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Port Vale v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.81
Home
60.0%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
16.9%
64/13 (5.92)
The model: Port Vale v Newport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.76, Newport County 0.81: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 60.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 16.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.9%
18/13 (2.39)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
The model: Newport County v Walsall
The model
What the expected goals say
Newport County expected goals 1.62, Walsall 1.44: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newport County goals down, Walsall goals across.
| Newport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Newport County win, per cent
- 41.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Walsall win, per cent
- 34.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Crawley Town v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.34 · expected away goals 1.42
Home
35.4%
31/17 (2.82)
Draw
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Away
39.1%
14/9 (2.56)
The model: Crawley Town v Newport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.34, Newport County 1.42: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 35.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 39.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
