League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Crawley Town
24th on points, with 9. 20th on season xG difference. 12 league matches, 17.37 xG for, 22.15 against, goal difference -8.
- Season xGD
- -4.78
- GF minus xG
- -4.37
- Last 10 xGD
- -5.14
- xG per match
- 1.45
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 12 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.45
- xG against / match
- 1.85
- xGD / match
- -0.40
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.43
- xG against / match
- 1.94
- xGD / match
- -0.51
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.33
- xG against / match
- 2.15
- xGD / match
- -0.82
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.86 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.32. Away attack 1.23 from 6 away matches. Away defence 1.09.
No fixture for Crawley Town in the next eight days.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Crawley Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.26 for · 1.46 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.82 for · 1.19 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.64 for · 2.35 against
17 Oct · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.61 for · 1.75 against
10 Oct · Home
Chesterfield2–2xG 1.74 for · 1.58 against
19 Sept · Away
Grimsby Town0–2xG 0.94 for · 4.59 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.44 for · 1.90 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.49 for · 2.07 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 2.62 for · 0.55 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 0.72 for · 1.98 against
22 Aug · Away
Rochdale2–1xG 2.16 for · 0.53 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 0.93 for · 2.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Oldham Athletic | 1-0 | 2.26 | 1.46 | -1.26 |
| 24 Oct | H | Tranmere Rovers | 1-1 | 0.82 | 1.19 | +0.18 |
| 20 Oct | H | Shrewsbury Town | 2-3 | 1.64 | 2.35 | +0.36 |
| 17 Oct | A | Salford City | 1-2 | 0.61 | 1.75 | +0.39 |
| 10 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 2-2 | 1.74 | 1.58 | +0.26 |
| 19 Sept | A | Grimsby Town | 0-2 | 0.94 | 4.59 | -0.94 |
| 12 Sept | H | Cheltenham Town | 1-3 | 1.44 | 1.90 | -0.44 |
| 5 Sept | A | Accrington Stanley | 2-3 | 1.49 | 2.07 | +0.51 |
| 1 Sept | A | Northampton Town | 1-1 | 2.62 | 0.55 | -1.62 |
| 29 Aug | H | Bristol Rovers | 0-2 | 0.72 | 1.98 | -0.72 |
| 22 Aug | A | Rochdale | 2-1 | 2.16 | 0.53 | -0.16 |
| 15 Aug | H | Crewe Alexandra | 0-1 | 0.93 | 2.20 | -0.93 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Crawley Town v Fleetwood Town
Expected home goals 1.78 · expected away goals 1.67
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.44)
Draw
22.4%
83/24 (4.46)
Away
36.5%
40/23 (2.74)
The model: Crawley Town v Fleetwood Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.78, Fleetwood Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Fleetwood Town goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.4%
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 36.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
26.7%
63/23 (3.74)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.48)
Away
51.0%
23/24 (1.96)
The model: Crawley Town v Barnet
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.33, Barnet 1.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Barnet goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 26.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Barnet win, per cent
- 51.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Exeter City v Crawley Town
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.14
Home
50.2%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
25.8%
49/17 (3.88)
The model: Exeter City v Crawley Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.69, Crawley Town 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Crawley Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 50.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 25.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.7%
19/11 (2.73)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
36.0%
39/22 (2.77)
The model: Crawley Town v Port Vale
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.24, Port Vale 1.22: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 36.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 36.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
44.7%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.49)
Away
33.1%
49/24 (3.02)
The model: Walsall v Crawley Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Walsall expected goals 1.86, Crawley Town 1.58: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Walsall goals down, Crawley Town goals across.
| Walsall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Walsall win, per cent
- 44.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 33.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
