League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Shrewsbury Town
15th on points, with 18. 6th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 20.32 xG for, 16.30 against, goal difference -5.
- Season xGD
- +4.02
- GF minus xG
- -3.32
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.81
- xG per match
- 1.45
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.45
- xG against / match
- 1.16
- xGD / match
- +0.29
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.51
- xG against / match
- 1.23
- xGD / match
- +0.28
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.65
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- +0.22
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.90 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.94. Away attack 1.18 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.85.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 25.5% (38/13), away 36.4% (40/23). Expected home goals 1.40, expected away goals 1.36. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Home side
Shrewsbury Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.34
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.11
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.22
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 0.94
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Shrewsbury Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–2xG 1.83 for · 2.03 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.79 for · 1.62 against
20 Oct · Away
Crawley Town3–2xG 2.35 for · 1.64 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 0.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–1xG 1.17 for · 1.22 against
Away side
Oldham Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oldham Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.94 for · 1.03 against
31 Oct · Home
Crawley Town0–1xG 1.46 for · 2.26 against
24 Oct · Away
Barnet1–1xG 2.39 for · 1.63 against
20 Oct · Away
Walsall0–3xG 1.52 for · 2.53 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.30 for · 0.88 against
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.40, Oldham Athletic 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Shrewsbury Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–2xG 1.83 for · 2.03 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.79 for · 1.62 against
20 Oct · Away
Crawley Town3–2xG 2.35 for · 1.64 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 0.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–1xG 1.17 for · 1.22 against
3 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–1xG 1.13 for · 1.56 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 1.38 for · 1.46 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 2.25 for · 0.95 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.87 for · 0.50 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 0.71 for · 0.80 against
1 Sept · Away
Rochdale0–3xG 1.46 for · 0.77 against
29 Aug · Home
Salford City1–0xG 0.67 for · 0.98 against
22 Aug · Home
Barnet1–3xG 1.78 for · 1.07 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 1.28 for · 1.16 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Gillingham | 1-2 | 1.83 | 2.03 | -0.83 |
| 24 Oct | A | Rotherham United | 3-3 | 1.79 | 1.62 | +1.21 |
| 20 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 3-2 | 2.35 | 1.64 | +0.65 |
| 17 Oct | H | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 | 1.65 | 0.54 | -0.65 |
| 10 Oct | H | Exeter City | 0-1 | 1.17 | 1.22 | -1.17 |
| 3 Oct | A | Grimsby Town | 2-1 | 1.13 | 1.56 | +0.87 |
| 26 Sept | H | Colchester United | 2-2 | 1.38 | 1.46 | +0.62 |
| 19 Sept | A | Crewe Alexandra | 1-1 | 2.25 | 0.95 | -1.25 |
| 12 Sept | H | Northampton Town | 2-0 | 0.87 | 0.50 | +1.13 |
| 5 Sept | A | Fleetwood Town | 0-2 | 0.71 | 0.80 | -0.71 |
| 1 Sept | A | Rochdale | 0-3 | 1.46 | 0.77 | -1.46 |
| 29 Aug | H | Salford City | 1-0 | 0.67 | 0.98 | +0.33 |
| 22 Aug | H | Barnet | 1-3 | 1.78 | 1.07 | -0.78 |
| 15 Aug | A | Tranmere Rovers | 0-2 | 1.28 | 1.16 | -1.28 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Away
36.4%
40/23 (2.74)
The model: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.40, Oldham Athletic 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.23
Home
49.3%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
27.1%
62/23 (3.69)
The model: Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 1.74, Shrewsbury Town 1.23: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Shrewsbury Town goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 49.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 27.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Shrewsbury Town v Cheltenham Town
Expected home goals 1.45 · expected away goals 1.12
Home
44.7%
21/17 (2.24)
Draw
26.2%
48/17 (3.82)
Away
29.1%
56/23 (3.43)
The model: Shrewsbury Town v Cheltenham Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.45, Cheltenham Town 1.12: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 44.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 29.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
York City v Shrewsbury Town
Expected home goals 1.48 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
43.3%
21/16 (2.31)
Draw
25.6%
61/21 (3.90)
Away
31.1%
31/14 (3.21)
The model: York City v Shrewsbury Town
The model
What the expected goals say
York City expected goals 1.48, Shrewsbury Town 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. York City goals down, Shrewsbury Town goals across.
| York City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- York City win, per cent
- 43.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.6%
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 31.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Shrewsbury Town v Port Vale
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 0.88
Home
46.2%
7/6 (2.16)
Draw
28.5%
5/2 (3.51)
Away
25.3%
68/23 (3.96)
The model: Shrewsbury Town v Port Vale
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.29, Port Vale 0.88: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 46.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.5%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 25.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 36.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
