League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Grimsby Town
6th on points, with 20. 2nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 30.08 xG for, 19.38 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- +10.70
- GF minus xG
- -6.08
- Last 10 xGD
- +9.43
- xG per match
- 2.15
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.15
- xG against / match
- 1.38
- xGD / match
- +0.76
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.26
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- +0.94
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.17
- xG against / match
- 1.61
- xGD / match
- +0.56
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.34 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.88. Away attack 1.32 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.07.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.1% (14/9), draw 22.8% (61/18), away 38.1% (13/8). Expected home goals 1.69, expected away goals 1.67. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Home side
Swindon Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.29
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 1.04
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swindon Town’s side.
Away side
Grimsby Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.84
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.78
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.32
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Grimsby Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
York City5–2xG 2.58 for · 0.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Gillingham4–1xG 2.83 for · 1.15 against
20 Oct · Away
Rochdale2–2xG 2.89 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.71 for · 2.00 against
10 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.45 for · 3.18 against
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.69, Grimsby Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 39.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.1 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Grimsby Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
York City5–2xG 2.58 for · 0.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Gillingham4–1xG 2.83 for · 1.15 against
20 Oct · Away
Rochdale2–2xG 2.89 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.71 for · 2.00 against
10 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.45 for · 3.18 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.13 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 2.00 for · 1.23 against
19 Sept · Home
Crawley Town2–0xG 4.59 for · 0.94 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.44 for · 0.11 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.59 for · 1.29 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 2.19 for · 2.60 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 2.92 for · 1.61 against
22 Aug · Away
Walsall0–0xG 0.90 for · 1.21 against
15 Aug · Home
Exeter City1–0xG 1.43 for · 0.75 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | York City | 5-2 | 2.58 | 0.41 | +2.42 |
| 24 Oct | A | Gillingham | 4-1 | 2.83 | 1.15 | +1.17 |
| 20 Oct | A | Rochdale | 2-2 | 2.89 | 1.77 | -0.89 |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton Town | 0-2 | 2.71 | 2.00 | -2.71 |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0-1 | 0.45 | 3.18 | -0.45 |
| 3 Oct | H | Shrewsbury Town | 1-2 | 1.56 | 1.13 | -0.56 |
| 26 Sept | A | Newport County | 1-2 | 2.00 | 1.23 | -1.00 |
| 19 Sept | H | Crawley Town | 2-0 | 4.59 | 0.94 | -2.59 |
| 12 Sept | H | Bristol Rovers | 2-0 | 1.44 | 0.11 | +0.56 |
| 5 Sept | A | Cheltenham Town | 2-2 | 1.59 | 1.29 | +0.41 |
| 1 Sept | A | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 | 2.19 | 2.60 | -0.19 |
| 29 Aug | H | Fleetwood Town | 2-2 | 2.92 | 1.61 | -0.92 |
| 22 Aug | A | Walsall | 0-0 | 0.90 | 1.21 | -0.90 |
| 15 Aug | H | Exeter City | 1-0 | 1.43 | 0.75 | -0.43 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67
Home
39.1%
14/9 (2.56)
Draw
22.8%
61/18 (4.39)
Away
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
The model: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.69, Grimsby Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 39.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Grimsby Town v Rotherham United
Expected home goals 1.78 · expected away goals 1.05
Home
54.5%
5/6 (1.84)
Draw
23.3%
79/24 (4.29)
Away
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
The model: Grimsby Town v Rotherham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Grimsby Town expected goals 1.78, Rotherham United 1.05: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Grimsby Town goals down, Rotherham United goals across.
| Grimsby Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 54.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 22.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Crewe Alexandra v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.72
Home
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
45.0%
11/9 (2.22)
The model: Crewe Alexandra v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.41, Grimsby Town 1.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 31.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 45.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Grimsby Town v Colchester United
Expected home goals 2.48 · expected away goals 0.96
Home
70.6%
5/12 (1.42)
Draw
16.8%
119/24 (5.96)
Away
12.6%
76/11 (7.91)
The model: Grimsby Town v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Grimsby Town expected goals 2.48, Colchester United 0.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Grimsby Town goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Grimsby Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 70.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 16.8%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 12.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.9%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Chesterfield v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 2.20 · expected away goals 1.38
Home
56.2%
18/23 (1.78)
Draw
20.3%
51/13 (4.92)
Away
23.5%
13/4 (4.25)
The model: Chesterfield v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 2.20, Grimsby Town 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 56.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.3%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 69.3%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
