Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Blackburn Rovers
13th on points, with 21. 22nd on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 15.50 xG for, 26.53 against, goal difference -1.
- Season xGD
- -11.03
- GF minus xG
- +6.50
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.64
- xG per match
- 1.03
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.03
- xG against / match
- 1.77
- xGD / match
- -0.74
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.15
- xG against / match
- 1.81
- xGD / match
- -0.66
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.94
- xG against / match
- 2.20
- xGD / match
- -1.26
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.92 from 8 home matches. Home defence 0.97. Away attack 0.66 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.29.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers, Sun 22 Nov, 12:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.3% (16/19), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 20.9% (53/14). Expected home goals 1.62, expected away goals 0.90. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
Home side
Burnley
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.06
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.39
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.69
- Venue attack rating
- 0.79
- Venue defence rating
- 1.02
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burnley’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Cardiff City4–5xG 2.38 for · 4.61 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.15 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–0xG 1.89 for · 0.25 against
24 Oct · Away
Lincoln City1–4xG 2.46 for · 2.13 against
16 Oct · Home
xG 1.03 for · 2.00 against
Away side
Blackburn Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.26
- Venue attack rating
- 0.66
- Venue defence rating
- 1.29
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Blackburn Rovers’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.34 against
3 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 1.82 for · 1.22 against
31 Oct · Away
Swansea City0–4xG 0.53 for · 2.78 against
24 Oct · Home
Wrexham2–0xG 1.37 for · 1.60 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.84 for · 4.19 against
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Burnley expected goals 1.62, Blackburn Rovers 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Burnley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Burnley win, per cent
- 54.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 20.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.5 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Blackburn Rovers’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.34 against
3 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 1.82 for · 1.22 against
31 Oct · Away
Swansea City0–4xG 0.53 for · 2.78 against
24 Oct · Home
Wrexham2–0xG 1.37 for · 1.60 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.84 for · 4.19 against
13 Oct · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 0.20 for · 2.07 against
10 Oct · Home
Cardiff City2–1xG 2.42 for · 1.05 against
19 Sept · Away
Portsmouth2–2xG 0.59 for · 1.60 against
12 Sept · Home
Millwall3–1xG 1.23 for · 1.63 against
8 Sept · Home
xG 1.62 for · 0.66 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.09 for · 2.19 against
1 Sept · Away
Lincoln City0–0xG 0.24 for · 1.46 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 0.92 for · 1.34 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 0.91 for · 1.43 against
14 Aug · Away
xG 0.84 for · 1.97 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | West Ham United | 2-1 | 0.88 | 1.34 | +1.12 |
| 3 Nov | H | Stoke City | 1-2 | 1.82 | 1.22 | -0.82 |
| 31 Oct | A | Swansea City | 0-4 | 0.53 | 2.78 | -0.53 |
| 24 Oct | H | Wrexham | 2-0 | 1.37 | 1.60 | +0.63 |
| 17 Oct | A | West Bromwich Albion | 2-3 | 0.84 | 4.19 | +1.16 |
| 13 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1-0 | 0.20 | 2.07 | +0.80 |
| 10 Oct | H | Cardiff City | 2-1 | 2.42 | 1.05 | -0.42 |
| 19 Sept | A | Portsmouth | 2-2 | 0.59 | 1.60 | +1.41 |
| 12 Sept | H | Millwall | 3-1 | 1.23 | 1.63 | +1.77 |
| 8 Sept | H | Sheffield United | 1-2 | 1.62 | 0.66 | -0.62 |
| 5 Sept | A | Preston North End | 1-2 | 1.09 | 2.19 | -0.09 |
| 1 Sept | A | Lincoln City | 0-0 | 0.24 | 1.46 | -0.24 |
| 29 Aug | H | Queens Park Rangers | 1-2 | 0.92 | 1.34 | +0.08 |
| 22 Aug | H | Middlesbrough | 2-1 | 0.91 | 1.43 | +1.09 |
| 14 Aug | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-2 | 0.84 | 1.97 | +1.16 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 12:00 · Away
Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90
Home
54.3%
16/19 (1.84)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.03)
Away
20.9%
53/14 (4.78)
The model: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Burnley expected goals 1.62, Blackburn Rovers 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Burnley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Burnley win, per cent
- 54.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 20.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Watford v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.64 · expected away goals 0.98
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
24.6%
55/18 (4.06)
Away
22.5%
55/16 (4.44)
The model: Watford v Blackburn Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Watford expected goals 1.64, Blackburn Rovers 0.98: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Watford goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Watford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Watford win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Blackburn Rovers v Charlton Athletic
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.07
Home
51.5%
16/17 (1.94)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
24.3%
53/17 (4.12)
The model: Blackburn Rovers v Charlton Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackburn Rovers expected goals 1.68, Charlton Athletic 1.07: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackburn Rovers goals down, Charlton Athletic goals across.
| Blackburn Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 51.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
55.3%
17/21 (1.81)
Draw
21.7%
83/23 (4.61)
Away
23.0%
77/23 (4.34)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.98, Blackburn Rovers 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 55.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 23.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Blackburn Rovers v Norwich City
Expected home goals 1.38 · expected away goals 1.65
Home
32.1%
19/9 (3.11)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
44.0%
14/11 (2.27)
The model: Blackburn Rovers v Norwich City
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackburn Rovers expected goals 1.38, Norwich City 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackburn Rovers goals down, Norwich City goals across.
| Blackburn Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 32.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
