Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Stoke City
3rd on points, with 29. 17th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 15.69 xG for, 21.97 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- -6.28
- GF minus xG
- +8.31
- Last 10 xGD
- -3.76
- xG per match
- 1.05
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.05
- xG against / match
- 1.46
- xGD / match
- -0.42
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.06
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- -0.38
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.09
- xG against / match
- 1.14
- xGD / match
- -0.05
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.80. Away attack 0.82 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.15.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Stoke City v Birmingham City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 33.0% (49/24), draw 27.0% (27/10), away 40.0% (3/2). Expected home goals 1.17, expected away goals 1.31. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Stoke City v Birmingham City
Home side
Stoke City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.91
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.80
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stoke City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Portsmouth2–1xG 0.86 for · 0.51 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.82 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.22 for · 0.10 against
24 Oct · Home
Bristol City0–0xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
17 Oct · Away
Derby County1–0xG 0.59 for · 1.14 against
Away side
Birmingham City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.82
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 1.23
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Birmingham City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Swansea City2–1xG 2.91 for · 1.05 against
3 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 1.35 for · 1.42 against
31 Oct · Away
Lincoln City3–1xG 2.07 for · 1.60 against
24 Oct · Away
Cardiff City0–1xG 1.04 for · 2.97 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.31 for · 0.96 against
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.17, Birmingham City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 33.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 40.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 8.3 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Stoke City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Portsmouth2–1xG 0.86 for · 0.51 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.82 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.22 for · 0.10 against
24 Oct · Home
Bristol City0–0xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
17 Oct · Away
Derby County1–0xG 0.59 for · 1.14 against
13 Oct · Home
xG 0.62 for · 2.49 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.74 for · 3.13 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.65 for · 0.36 against
12 Sept · Away
Watford2–1xG 1.50 for · 0.39 against
8 Sept · Away
Cardiff City1–1xG 1.11 for · 3.60 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 2.14 for · 0.61 against
1 Sept · Home
Norwich City1–0xG 0.58 for · 1.44 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.83 for · 2.66 against
22 Aug · Away
Southampton1–3xG 0.93 for · 2.32 against
15 Aug · Home
Swansea City1–2xG 0.65 for · 0.62 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Portsmouth | 2-1 | 0.86 | 0.51 | +1.14 |
| 3 Nov | A | Blackburn Rovers | 2-1 | 1.22 | 1.82 | +0.78 |
| 31 Oct | H | Preston North End | 2-0 | 2.22 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| 24 Oct | H | Bristol City | 0-0 | 1.05 | 0.78 | -1.05 |
| 17 Oct | A | Derby County | 1-0 | 0.59 | 1.14 | +0.41 |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2-3 | 0.62 | 2.49 | +1.38 |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton Wanderers | 2-1 | 0.74 | 3.13 | +1.26 |
| 19 Sept | H | Sheffield United | 2-1 | 0.65 | 0.36 | +1.35 |
| 12 Sept | A | Watford | 2-1 | 1.50 | 0.39 | +0.50 |
| 8 Sept | A | Cardiff City | 1-1 | 1.11 | 3.60 | -0.11 |
| 5 Sept | H | Charlton Athletic | 4-0 | 2.14 | 0.61 | +1.86 |
| 1 Sept | H | Norwich City | 1-0 | 0.58 | 1.44 | +0.42 |
| 29 Aug | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-4 | 0.83 | 2.66 | +0.17 |
| 22 Aug | A | Southampton | 1-3 | 0.93 | 2.32 | +0.07 |
| 15 Aug | H | Swansea City | 1-2 | 0.65 | 0.62 | +0.35 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Stoke City v Birmingham City
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Draw
27.0%
27/10 (3.70)
Away
40.0%
3/2 (2.50)
The model: Stoke City v Birmingham City
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.17, Birmingham City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 33.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 40.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
32.6%
31/15 (3.07)
The model: Stoke City v Millwall
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.30, Millwall 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Millwall goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Millwall win, per cent
- 32.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
West Ham United v Stoke City
Expected home goals 2.28 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
68.1%
8/17 (1.47)
Draw
18.3%
76/17 (5.47)
Away
13.7%
139/22 (7.32)
The model: West Ham United v Stoke City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 2.28, Stoke City 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Stoke City goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 68.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.3%
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 13.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Stoke City v Queens Park Rangers
Expected home goals 1.12 · expected away goals 0.98
Home
38.7%
19/12 (2.58)
Draw
29.9%
54/23 (3.35)
Away
31.4%
24/11 (3.18)
The model: Stoke City v Queens Park Rangers
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.12, Queens Park Rangers 0.98: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Queens Park Rangers goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 38.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.9%
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 31.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 12.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 35.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
53.9%
6/7 (1.86)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
Away
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
The model: Lincoln City v Stoke City
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.91, Stoke City 1.20: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Stoke City goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 53.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 23.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
