Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Sheffield United
10th on points, with 22. 15th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 18.75 xG for, 20.27 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- -1.52
- GF minus xG
- +2.25
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.98
- xG per match
- 1.25
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.25
- xG against / match
- 1.35
- xGD / match
- -0.10
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.27
- xG against / match
- 1.17
- xGD / match
- +0.10
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.73
- xG against / match
- 1.09
- xGD / match
- +0.64
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.87 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.07. Away attack 0.95 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.85.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Sheffield United v Watford, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 49.1% (25/24), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 26.2% (31/11). Expected home goals 1.61, expected away goals 1.11. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield United v Watford
Home side
Sheffield United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.49
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.22 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.96 for · 0.88 against
30 Oct · Home
Wrexham1–0xG 1.25 for · 0.64 against
24 Oct · Home
Derby County1–1xG 2.99 for · 1.16 against
17 Oct · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 1.41 for · 0.67 against
Away side
Watford
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.86
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.71
- Venue attack rating
- 0.77
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Watford’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.36 for · 1.99 against
3 Nov · Home
Lincoln City1–0xG 0.63 for · 0.77 against
31 Oct · Away
Norwich City2–3xG 1.06 for · 1.08 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.16 for · 1.95 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.85 for · 1.17 against
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.61, Watford 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Watford goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Watford win, per cent
- 26.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Sheffield United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.22 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.96 for · 0.88 against
30 Oct · Home
Wrexham1–0xG 1.25 for · 0.64 against
24 Oct · Home
Derby County1–1xG 2.99 for · 1.16 against
17 Oct · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 1.41 for · 0.67 against
14 Oct · Away
Portsmouth2–3xG 1.78 for · 1.97 against
10 Oct · Home
Lincoln City3–0xG 0.68 for · 1.39 against
19 Sept · Away
Stoke City1–2xG 0.36 for · 0.65 against
13 Sept · Home
xG 0.63 for · 1.54 against
8 Sept · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.62 against
5 Sept · Home
Norwich City1–3xG 0.79 for · 3.04 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 2.21 for · 1.91 against
29 Aug · Away
Cardiff City2–2xG 1.28 for · 2.24 against
22 Aug · Away
Swansea City0–0xG 1.46 for · 0.57 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 0.29 for · 0.77 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Charlton Athletic | 1-2 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.00 |
| 3 Nov | A | Preston North End | 3-2 | 1.96 | 0.88 | +1.04 |
| 30 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1-0 | 1.25 | 0.64 | -0.25 |
| 24 Oct | H | Derby County | 1-1 | 2.99 | 1.16 | -1.99 |
| 17 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1-0 | 1.41 | 0.67 | -0.41 |
| 14 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 2-3 | 1.78 | 1.97 | +0.22 |
| 10 Oct | H | Lincoln City | 3-0 | 0.68 | 1.39 | +2.32 |
| 19 Sept | A | Stoke City | 1-2 | 0.36 | 0.65 | +0.64 |
| 13 Sept | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1 | 0.63 | 1.54 | -0.63 |
| 8 Sept | A | Blackburn Rovers | 2-1 | 0.66 | 1.62 | +1.34 |
| 5 Sept | H | Norwich City | 1-3 | 0.79 | 3.04 | +0.21 |
| 1 Sept | H | Bolton Wanderers | 3-2 | 2.21 | 1.91 | +0.79 |
| 29 Aug | A | Cardiff City | 2-2 | 1.28 | 2.24 | +0.72 |
| 22 Aug | A | Swansea City | 0-0 | 1.46 | 0.57 | -1.46 |
| 15 Aug | H | Birmingham City | 0-0 | 0.29 | 0.77 | -0.29 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Sheffield United v Watford
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
26.2%
31/11 (3.82)
The model: Sheffield United v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.61, Watford 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Watford goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Watford win, per cent
- 26.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Sheffield United v Southampton
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
30.8%
47/21 (3.24)
Draw
24.6%
49/16 (4.06)
Away
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
The model: Sheffield United v Southampton
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.28, Southampton 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Southampton goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 30.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Southampton win, per cent
- 44.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Queens Park Rangers v Sheffield United
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.05
Home
52.3%
21/23 (1.91)
Draw
24.2%
69/22 (4.14)
Away
23.5%
13/4 (4.25)
The model: Queens Park Rangers v Sheffield United
The model
What the expected goals say
Queens Park Rangers expected goals 1.68, Sheffield United 1.05: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Queens Park Rangers goals down, Sheffield United goals across.
| Queens Park Rangers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 52.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 4 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Sheffield United v West Ham United
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.80
Home
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
49.7%
1/1 (2.01)
The model: Sheffield United v West Ham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.28, West Ham United 1.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, West Ham United goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 27.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 49.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Millwall v Sheffield United
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
46.6%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
24.2%
25/8 (4.13)
Away
29.2%
17/7 (3.43)
The model: Millwall v Sheffield United
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 1.65, Sheffield United 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Sheffield United goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 46.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 29.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
