Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Bolton Wanderers
18th on points, with 17. 21st on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 20.63 xG for, 29.96 against, goal difference -9.
- Season xGD
- -9.33
- GF minus xG
- -0.63
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.43
- xG per match
- 1.38
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 2.00
- xGD / match
- -0.62
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.44
- xG against / match
- 2.08
- xGD / match
- -0.64
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.35
- xG against / match
- 2.56
- xGD / match
- -1.21
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.96 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.38. Away attack 0.96 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.12.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 32.9% (49/24), draw 25.5% (41/14), away 41.7% (7/5). Expected home goals 1.27, expected away goals 1.47. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Home side
Bolton Wanderers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.50
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.13
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.38
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bolton Wanderers’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Derby County1–3xG 1.86 for · 2.07 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.78 for · 0.79 against
31 Oct · Home
Bristol City2–3xG 1.38 for · 3.33 against
23 Oct · Home
xG 0.97 for · 4.38 against
17 Oct · Away
Southampton0–0xG 1.53 for · 2.19 against
Away side
Portsmouth
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.91
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.17
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Portsmouth’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 0.51 for · 0.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Swansea City3–1xG 1.35 for · 2.25 against
31 Oct · Away
Burnley0–0xG 0.25 for · 1.89 against
24 Oct · Home
Millwall2–1xG 0.75 for · 0.84 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.73 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.27, Portsmouth 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 32.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 41.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Bolton Wanderers’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Derby County1–3xG 1.86 for · 2.07 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.78 for · 0.79 against
31 Oct · Home
Bristol City2–3xG 1.38 for · 3.33 against
23 Oct · Home
xG 0.97 for · 4.38 against
17 Oct · Away
Southampton0–0xG 1.53 for · 2.19 against
13 Oct · Away
xG 1.60 for · 2.62 against
10 Oct · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 3.13 for · 0.74 against
20 Sept · Away
Norwich City4–3xG 1.10 for · 0.69 against
12 Sept · Home
Cardiff City1–0xG 0.48 for · 1.79 against
8 Sept · Home
xG 1.56 for · 2.22 against
5 Sept · Away
Millwall0–4xG 1.15 for · 2.67 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.91 for · 2.21 against
29 Aug · Home
Lincoln City0–1xG 1.89 for · 1.32 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.19 for · 1.82 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.10 for · 1.12 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | A | Derby County | 1-3 | 1.86 | 2.07 | -0.86 |
| 3 Nov | A | Charlton Athletic | 1-0 | 0.78 | 0.79 | +0.22 |
| 31 Oct | H | Bristol City | 2-3 | 1.38 | 3.33 | +0.62 |
| 23 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 1-5 | 0.97 | 4.38 | +0.03 |
| 17 Oct | A | Southampton | 0-0 | 1.53 | 2.19 | -1.53 |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-1 | 1.60 | 2.62 | +1.40 |
| 10 Oct | H | Stoke City | 1-2 | 3.13 | 0.74 | -2.13 |
| 20 Sept | A | Norwich City | 4-3 | 1.10 | 0.69 | +2.90 |
| 12 Sept | H | Cardiff City | 1-0 | 0.48 | 1.79 | +0.52 |
| 8 Sept | H | West Ham United | 2-3 | 1.56 | 2.22 | +0.44 |
| 5 Sept | A | Millwall | 0-4 | 1.15 | 2.67 | -1.15 |
| 1 Sept | A | Sheffield United | 2-3 | 1.91 | 2.21 | +0.09 |
| 29 Aug | H | Lincoln City | 0-1 | 1.89 | 1.32 | -1.89 |
| 22 Aug | A | Queens Park Rangers | 0-0 | 0.19 | 1.82 | -0.19 |
| 15 Aug | H | Preston North End | 2-1 | 1.10 | 1.12 | +0.90 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47
Home
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
41.7%
7/5 (2.40)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.27, Portsmouth 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 32.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 41.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Bolton Wanderers v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 1.86
Home
34.0%
33/17 (2.94)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
43.8%
9/7 (2.28)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.62, West Bromwich Albion 1.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 34.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 43.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
50.1%
1/1 (2.00)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
The model: Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Birmingham City expected goals 1.86, Bolton Wanderers 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Birmingham City goals down, Bolton Wanderers goals across.
| Birmingham City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 50.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 27.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 12:30 · Home
Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
55.3%
17/21 (1.81)
Draw
21.7%
83/23 (4.61)
Away
23.0%
77/23 (4.34)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.98, Blackburn Rovers 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 55.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 23.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Swansea City v Bolton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.96 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
57.5%
17/23 (1.74)
Draw
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
Away
20.7%
65/17 (4.82)
The model: Swansea City v Bolton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.96, Bolton Wanderers 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, Bolton Wanderers goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 57.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 20.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
