Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
West Ham United
9th on points, with 23. 3rd on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 30.28 xG for, 18.33 against, goal difference +14.
- Season xGD
- +11.95
- GF minus xG
- +6.72
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.42
- xG per match
- 2.02
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.02
- xG against / match
- 1.22
- xGD / match
- +0.80
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.94
- xG against / match
- 1.30
- xGD / match
- +0.64
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.81
- xG against / match
- 1.17
- xGD / match
- +0.65
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.25 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.84. Away attack 1.26 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.93.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: West Ham United v Preston North End, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 61.9% (8/13), draw 20.5% (66/17), away 17.6% (103/22). Expected home goals 2.08, expected away goals 1.01. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: West Ham United v Preston North End
Home side
West Ham United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.00
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.65
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from West Ham United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.34 for · 0.88 against
4 Nov · Away
Cardiff City3–3xG 2.78 for · 1.12 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.90 for · 2.06 against
24 Oct · Home
Southampton2–3xG 1.51 for · 1.55 against
17 Oct · Away
Swansea City1–0xG 1.15 for · 1.05 against
Away side
Preston North End
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.71
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Preston North End’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Southampton1–0xG 1.35 for · 1.88 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–2xG 0.10 for · 2.22 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.16 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
Wrexham1–4xG 0.87 for · 1.61 against
Expected home goals 2.08 · expected away goals 1.01.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 2.08, Preston North End 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Preston North End goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 61.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.5%
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 17.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from West Ham United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.34 for · 0.88 against
4 Nov · Away
Cardiff City3–3xG 2.78 for · 1.12 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.90 for · 2.06 against
24 Oct · Home
Southampton2–3xG 1.51 for · 1.55 against
17 Oct · Away
Swansea City1–0xG 1.15 for · 1.05 against
14 Oct · Away
Lincoln City6–0xG 3.21 for · 0.35 against
9 Oct · Home
xG 1.44 for · 1.27 against
19 Sept · Away
Millwall2–2xG 1.87 for · 2.68 against
11 Sept · Home
Wrexham6–0xG 2.96 for · 0.44 against
8 Sept · Away
xG 2.22 for · 1.56 against
5 Sept · Home
Derby County3–0xG 3.79 for · 0.11 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 2.05 for · 0.94 against
29 Aug · Away
Watford1–1xG 0.89 for · 1.60 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 2.84 for · 0.62 against
16 Aug · Away
Burnley2–2xG 1.33 for · 2.10 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Blackburn Rovers | 1-2 | 1.34 | 0.88 | -0.34 |
| 4 Nov | A | Cardiff City | 3-3 | 2.78 | 1.12 | +0.22 |
| 31 Oct | H | West Bromwich Albion | 1-3 | 0.90 | 2.06 | +0.10 |
| 24 Oct | H | Southampton | 2-3 | 1.51 | 1.55 | +0.49 |
| 17 Oct | A | Swansea City | 1-0 | 1.15 | 1.05 | -0.15 |
| 14 Oct | A | Lincoln City | 6-0 | 3.21 | 0.35 | +2.79 |
| 9 Oct | H | Queens Park Rangers | 1-1 | 1.44 | 1.27 | -0.44 |
| 19 Sept | A | Millwall | 2-2 | 1.87 | 2.68 | +0.13 |
| 11 Sept | H | Wrexham | 6-0 | 2.96 | 0.44 | +3.04 |
| 8 Sept | A | Bolton Wanderers | 3-2 | 2.22 | 1.56 | +0.78 |
| 5 Sept | H | Derby County | 3-0 | 3.79 | 0.11 | -0.79 |
| 1 Sept | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4-2 | 2.05 | 0.94 | +1.95 |
| 29 Aug | A | Watford | 1-1 | 0.89 | 1.60 | +0.11 |
| 22 Aug | H | Charlton Athletic | 1-2 | 2.84 | 0.62 | -1.84 |
| 16 Aug | A | Burnley | 2-2 | 1.33 | 2.10 | +0.67 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
West Ham United v Preston North End
Expected home goals 2.08 · expected away goals 1.01
Home
61.9%
8/13 (1.61)
Draw
20.5%
66/17 (4.88)
Away
17.6%
103/22 (5.68)
The model: West Ham United v Preston North End
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 2.08, Preston North End 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Preston North End goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 61.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.5%
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 17.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Portsmouth v West Ham United
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.64
Home
31.8%
15/7 (3.14)
Draw
24.0%
19/6 (4.16)
Away
44.2%
24/19 (2.26)
The model: Portsmouth v West Ham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Portsmouth expected goals 1.36, West Ham United 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Portsmouth goals down, West Ham United goals across.
| Portsmouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 31.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 44.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
West Ham United v Stoke City
Expected home goals 2.28 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
68.1%
8/17 (1.47)
Draw
18.3%
76/17 (5.47)
Away
13.7%
139/22 (7.32)
The model: West Ham United v Stoke City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 2.28, Stoke City 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Stoke City goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 68.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.3%
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 13.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 4 Dec, 20:00 · Away
Sheffield United v West Ham United
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.80
Home
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
49.7%
1/1 (2.01)
The model: Sheffield United v West Ham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.28, West Ham United 1.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, West Ham United goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 27.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 49.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 20:00 · Home
West Ham United v Middlesbrough
Expected home goals 1.42 · expected away goals 1.55
Home
34.8%
43/23 (2.87)
Draw
24.4%
31/10 (4.10)
Away
40.8%
16/11 (2.45)
The model: West Ham United v Middlesbrough
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 1.42, Middlesbrough 1.55: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Middlesbrough goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 34.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.4%
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 40.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
