Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Wolverhampton Wanderers
4th on points, with 28. 2nd on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.88 xG for, 14.09 against, goal difference +8.
- Season xGD
- +12.79
- GF minus xG
- -0.88
- Last 10 xGD
- +8.86
- xG per match
- 1.79
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.79
- xG against / match
- 0.94
- xGD / match
- +0.85
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.73
- xG against / match
- 0.84
- xGD / match
- +0.89
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.75
- xG against / match
- 0.83
- xGD / match
- +0.92
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.14 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.73. Away attack 1.16 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.79.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 67.1% (1/2), draw 19.6% (41/10), away 13.3% (13/2). Expected home goals 2.09, expected away goals 0.80. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
Home side
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.94
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.76
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.92
- Venue attack rating
- 1.14
- Venue defence rating
- 0.73
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wolverhampton Wanderers’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Wrexham1–1xG 1.72 for · 1.17 against
4 Nov · Away
Bristol City2–1xG 2.35 for · 0.99 against
31 Oct · Home
Cardiff City3–0xG 1.58 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Home
Watford1–0xG 1.95 for · 0.16 against
20 Oct · Home
Portsmouth1–1xG 0.87 for · 0.73 against
Away side
Charlton Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.42
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 1.15
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Charlton Athletic’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.22 for · 1.00 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.79 for · 0.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.40 for · 1.71 against
24 Oct · Home
Norwich City1–3xG 0.68 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Away
Watford0–2xG 1.17 for · 2.85 against
Expected home goals 2.09 · expected away goals 0.80.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 2.09, Charlton Athletic 0.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Charlton Athletic goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 67.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 13.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Wolverhampton Wanderers’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Wrexham1–1xG 1.72 for · 1.17 against
4 Nov · Away
Bristol City2–1xG 2.35 for · 0.99 against
31 Oct · Home
Cardiff City3–0xG 1.58 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Home
Watford1–0xG 1.95 for · 0.16 against
20 Oct · Home
Portsmouth1–1xG 0.87 for · 0.73 against
16 Oct · Away
Burnley2–1xG 2.00 for · 1.03 against
13 Oct · Home
xG 2.62 for · 1.60 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 0.90 against
20 Sept · Home
xG 1.95 for · 0.29 against
13 Sept · Away
xG 1.54 for · 0.63 against
6 Sept · Away
xG 2.47 for · 1.39 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 0.94 for · 2.05 against
29 Aug · Home
Stoke City4–1xG 2.66 for · 0.83 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.58 for · 0.58 against
14 Aug · Home
xG 1.97 for · 0.84 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Wrexham | 1-1 | 1.72 | 1.17 | -0.72 |
| 4 Nov | A | Bristol City | 2-1 | 2.35 | 0.99 | -0.35 |
| 31 Oct | H | Cardiff City | 3-0 | 1.58 | 0.90 | +1.42 |
| 24 Oct | H | Watford | 1-0 | 1.95 | 0.16 | -0.95 |
| 20 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1-1 | 0.87 | 0.73 | +0.13 |
| 16 Oct | A | Burnley | 2-1 | 2.00 | 1.03 | 0.00 |
| 13 Oct | H | Bolton Wanderers | 1-3 | 2.62 | 1.60 | -1.62 |
| 10 Oct | A | Middlesbrough | 0-1 | 0.68 | 0.90 | -0.68 |
| 20 Sept | H | West Bromwich Albion | 1-0 | 1.95 | 0.29 | -0.95 |
| 13 Sept | A | Sheffield United | 1-0 | 1.54 | 0.63 | -0.54 |
| 6 Sept | A | Birmingham City | 2-2 | 2.47 | 1.39 | -0.47 |
| 1 Sept | A | West Ham United | 2-4 | 0.94 | 2.05 | +1.06 |
| 29 Aug | H | Stoke City | 4-1 | 2.66 | 0.83 | +1.34 |
| 22 Aug | A | Preston North End | 3-1 | 1.58 | 0.58 | +1.42 |
| 14 Aug | H | Blackburn Rovers | 2-2 | 1.97 | 0.84 | +0.03 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
Expected home goals 2.09 · expected away goals 0.80
Home
67.1%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
19.6%
41/10 (5.10)
Away
13.3%
13/2 (7.51)
The model: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 2.09, Charlton Athletic 0.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Charlton Athletic goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 67.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 13.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 · Home
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.19 · expected away goals 0.80
Home
69.0%
9/20 (1.45)
Draw
18.6%
92/21 (5.38)
Away
12.4%
92/13 (8.08)
The model: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 2.19, Derby County 0.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 69.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 12.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.4%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Lincoln City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.70
Home
29.6%
19/8 (3.37)
Draw
23.7%
45/14 (4.21)
Away
46.6%
8/7 (2.15)
The model: Lincoln City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.31, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.70: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Wolverhampton Wanderers goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 29.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 46.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.08
Home
51.5%
16/17 (1.94)
Draw
24.2%
47/15 (4.13)
Away
24.3%
53/17 (4.12)
The model: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 1.68, Southampton 1.08: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Southampton goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 51.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Southampton win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Queens Park Rangers v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
44.3%
29/23 (2.26)
Draw
24.7%
67/22 (4.04)
Away
31.0%
20/9 (3.22)
The model: Queens Park Rangers v Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Queens Park Rangers expected goals 1.57, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Queens Park Rangers goals down, Wolverhampton Wanderers goals across.
| Queens Park Rangers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 44.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 31.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
