Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Bristol City
17th on points, with 18. 12th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 21.55 xG for, 22.33 against, goal difference -8.
- Season xGD
- -0.78
- GF minus xG
- -5.55
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.17
- xG per match
- 1.44
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.44
- xG against / match
- 1.49
- xGD / match
- -0.05
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.61
- xG against / match
- 1.39
- xGD / match
- +0.22
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.56
- xG against / match
- 1.55
- xGD / match
- +0.01
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.13. Away attack 1.19 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.91.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Middlesbrough v Bristol City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 45.2% (17/14), draw 23.7% (74/23), away 31.1% (31/14). Expected home goals 1.69, expected away goals 1.37. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Middlesbrough v Bristol City
Home side
Middlesbrough
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.60
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Middlesbrough’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Watford0–0xG 1.99 for · 0.36 against
4 Nov · Away
Wrexham0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.44 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.71 for · 0.40 against
23 Oct · Away
xG 4.38 for · 0.97 against
17 Oct · Home
Cardiff City2–2xG 2.76 for · 0.85 against
Away side
Bristol City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.74
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.37
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.91
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–5xG 1.51 for · 2.91 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 0.99 for · 2.35 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 3.33 for · 1.38 against
24 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–0xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 0.67 for · 1.41 against
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.37.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 1.69, Bristol City 1.37: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 45.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 31.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Bristol City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–5xG 1.51 for · 2.91 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 0.99 for · 2.35 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 3.33 for · 1.38 against
24 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–0xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 0.67 for · 1.41 against
13 Oct · Home
xG 2.07 for · 0.20 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.47 for · 1.78 against
18 Sept · Home
Watford1–0xG 1.47 for · 0.57 against
15 Sept · Home
Lincoln City0–1xG 1.53 for · 0.53 against
12 Sept · Away
Southampton1–4xG 2.24 for · 1.71 against
5 Sept · Away
Burnley2–1xG 1.07 for · 0.26 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.78 for · 1.91 against
29 Aug · Home
Portsmouth2–1xG 0.61 for · 1.37 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.51 for · 1.50 against
15 Aug · Home
Millwall0–2xG 0.52 for · 3.40 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Norwich City | 0-5 | 1.51 | 2.91 | -1.51 |
| 4 Nov | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-2 | 0.99 | 2.35 | +0.01 |
| 31 Oct | A | Bolton Wanderers | 3-2 | 3.33 | 1.38 | -0.33 |
| 24 Oct | A | Stoke City | 0-0 | 0.78 | 1.05 | -0.78 |
| 17 Oct | H | Sheffield United | 0-1 | 0.67 | 1.41 | -0.67 |
| 13 Oct | H | Blackburn Rovers | 0-1 | 2.07 | 0.20 | -2.07 |
| 10 Oct | A | Charlton Athletic | 1-1 | 1.47 | 1.78 | -0.47 |
| 18 Sept | H | Watford | 1-0 | 1.47 | 0.57 | -0.47 |
| 15 Sept | H | Lincoln City | 0-1 | 1.53 | 0.53 | -1.53 |
| 12 Sept | A | Southampton | 1-4 | 2.24 | 1.71 | -1.24 |
| 5 Sept | A | Burnley | 2-1 | 1.07 | 0.26 | +0.93 |
| 1 Sept | A | Preston North End | 3-1 | 1.78 | 1.91 | +1.22 |
| 29 Aug | H | Portsmouth | 2-1 | 0.61 | 1.37 | +1.39 |
| 22 Aug | A | Birmingham City | 2-2 | 1.51 | 1.50 | +0.49 |
| 15 Aug | H | Millwall | 0-2 | 0.52 | 3.40 | -0.52 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Middlesbrough v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.37
Home
45.2%
17/14 (2.21)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
31.1%
31/14 (3.21)
The model: Middlesbrough v Bristol City
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 1.69, Bristol City 1.37: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 45.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 31.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
31.1%
42/19 (3.21)
Draw
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
Away
41.0%
23/16 (2.44)
The model: Bristol City v Wrexham
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol City expected goals 1.07, Wrexham 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Bristol City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 31.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.8%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 41.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 41.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.39
Home
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
Draw
23.9%
67/21 (4.19)
Away
32.3%
21/10 (3.10)
The model: West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Bromwich Albion expected goals 1.66, Bristol City 1.39: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Bromwich Albion goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| West Bromwich Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 43.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 32.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 12:30 · Home
Bristol City v Swansea City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.55
Home
34.3%
23/12 (2.92)
Draw
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
Away
41.3%
27/19 (2.42)
The model: Bristol City v Swansea City
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol City expected goals 1.40, Swansea City 1.55: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol City goals down, Swansea City goals across.
| Bristol City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 34.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 41.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 9 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Derby County v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.20 · expected away goals 2.03
Home
22.0%
39/11 (4.55)
Draw
21.3%
85/23 (4.70)
Away
56.7%
16/21 (1.76)
The model: Derby County v Bristol City
The model
What the expected goals say
Derby County expected goals 1.20, Bristol City 2.03: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Derby County goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| Derby County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Derby County win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.3%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 56.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
