Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Swansea City
6th on points, with 26. 10th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 24.02 xG for, 21.06 against, goal difference +4.
- Season xGD
- +2.96
- GF minus xG
- -2.02
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.32
- xG per match
- 1.60
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.60
- xG against / match
- 1.40
- xGD / match
- +0.20
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.64
- xG against / match
- 1.67
- xGD / match
- -0.03
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.54
- xG against / match
- 1.79
- xGD / match
- -0.25
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.10 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.85. Away attack 1.03 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.06.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 53.7% (19/22), draw 22.8% (44/13), away 23.5% (75/23). Expected home goals 1.84, expected away goals 1.14. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Home side
Swansea City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swansea City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.91 against
3 Nov · Away
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.25 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.78 for · 0.53 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.43 for · 3.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 1.15 against
Away side
West Bromwich Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.73
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.57
- Venue attack rating
- 1.01
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from West Bromwich Albion’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 3.14 for · 0.42 against
3 Nov · Home
Southampton1–1xG 2.46 for · 1.38 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.06 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 2.62 for · 2.16 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 4.19 for · 0.84 against
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.84, West Bromwich Albion 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 53.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Swansea City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.91 against
3 Nov · Away
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.25 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.78 for · 0.53 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.43 for · 3.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 1.15 against
13 Oct · Away
Millwall1–0xG 1.69 for · 0.90 against
10 Oct · Home
Norwich City2–1xG 2.36 for · 0.68 against
19 Sept · Away
Lincoln City2–1xG 0.92 for · 2.11 against
12 Sept · Home
Burnley3–1xG 2.63 for · 1.73 against
8 Sept · Away
Southampton1–3xG 1.22 for · 1.44 against
5 Sept · Home
Wrexham0–0xG 0.74 for · 0.67 against
1 Sept · Home
Watford2–0xG 2.71 for · 0.88 against
29 Aug · Away
Derby County3–0xG 3.00 for · 0.70 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.46 against
15 Aug · Away
Stoke City2–1xG 0.62 for · 0.65 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Birmingham City | 1-2 | 1.05 | 2.91 | -0.05 |
| 3 Nov | A | Portsmouth | 1-3 | 2.25 | 1.35 | -1.25 |
| 31 Oct | H | Blackburn Rovers | 4-0 | 2.78 | 0.53 | +1.22 |
| 24 Oct | A | Queens Park Rangers | 0-5 | 0.43 | 3.90 | -0.43 |
| 17 Oct | H | West Ham United | 0-1 | 1.05 | 1.15 | -1.05 |
| 13 Oct | A | Millwall | 1-0 | 1.69 | 0.90 | -0.69 |
| 10 Oct | H | Norwich City | 2-1 | 2.36 | 0.68 | -0.36 |
| 19 Sept | A | Lincoln City | 2-1 | 0.92 | 2.11 | +1.08 |
| 12 Sept | H | Burnley | 3-1 | 2.63 | 1.73 | +0.37 |
| 8 Sept | A | Southampton | 1-3 | 1.22 | 1.44 | -0.22 |
| 5 Sept | H | Wrexham | 0-0 | 0.74 | 0.67 | -0.74 |
| 1 Sept | H | Watford | 2-0 | 2.71 | 0.88 | -0.71 |
| 29 Aug | A | Derby County | 3-0 | 3.00 | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| 22 Aug | H | Sheffield United | 0-0 | 0.57 | 1.46 | -0.57 |
| 15 Aug | A | Stoke City | 2-1 | 0.62 | 0.65 | +1.38 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14
Home
53.7%
19/22 (1.86)
Draw
22.8%
44/13 (4.38)
Away
23.5%
75/23 (4.26)
The model: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.84, West Bromwich Albion 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 53.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Middlesbrough v Swansea City
Expected home goals 1.97 · expected away goals 1.18
Home
55.8%
19/24 (1.79)
Draw
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
The model: Middlesbrough v Swansea City
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 1.97, Swansea City 1.18: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Swansea City goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 55.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 12:00 · Home
Swansea City v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 2.02 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
58.7%
7/10 (1.70)
Draw
21.2%
89/24 (4.71)
Away
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
The model: Swansea City v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 2.02, Cardiff City 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 58.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.2%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 20.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Bristol City v Swansea City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.55
Home
34.3%
23/12 (2.92)
Draw
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
Away
41.3%
27/19 (2.42)
The model: Bristol City v Swansea City
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol City expected goals 1.40, Swansea City 1.55: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol City goals down, Swansea City goals across.
| Bristol City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 34.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 41.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Swansea City v Bolton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.96 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
57.5%
17/23 (1.74)
Draw
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
Away
20.7%
65/17 (4.82)
The model: Swansea City v Bolton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.96, Bolton Wanderers 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, Bolton Wanderers goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 57.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 20.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
