P442xgform
Season 2026/2027. English football, all four divisions.A front door for The Stat Man
xgform
Friday, 13 November 2026Sports FinalChecked 14:38

Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta

Burnley

22nd on points, with 10. 19th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 20.14 xG for, 26.87 against, goal difference -9.

Season xGD
-6.73
GF minus xG
+1.86
Last 10 xGD
-5.03
xG per match
1.34

The recent picture

Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.

Season · 15 matches

xG for / match
1.34
xG against / match
1.79
xGD / match
-0.45

Last 10 · 10 matches

xG for / match
1.45
xG against / match
1.96
xGD / match
-0.50

Last 6 · 6 matches

xG for / match
1.49
xG against / match
2.18
xGD / match
-0.69

Chances and goals

Goals forxG forGoals againstxG against
01020304016 Aug7 Nov31 GA26.9 xGA22 GF20.1 xGF

Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.

Ratings that feed the price

Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.79 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.02. Away attack 1.13 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.23.

Next up

Fair price

Next in the eight-day window: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers, Sun 22 Nov, 12:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.3% (16/19), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 20.9% (53/14). Expected home goals 1.62, expected away goals 0.90. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.

Compare teams & see the workings: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers

Home side

Burnley

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.06
Venue xG against / match
1.39
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.69
Venue attack rating
0.79
Venue defence rating
1.02

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Burnley’s side.

  1. 7 Nov · Away

    Cardiff City4–5

    xG 2.38 for · 4.61 against

  2. 3 Nov · Away

    Queens Park Rangers1–1

    xG 0.15 for · 1.76 against

  3. 31 Oct · Home

    Portsmouth0–0

    xG 1.89 for · 0.25 against

  4. 24 Oct · Away

    Lincoln City1–4

    xG 2.46 for · 2.13 against

  5. 16 Oct · Home

    Wolverhampton Wanderers1–2

    xG 1.03 for · 2.00 against

Away side

Blackburn Rovers

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
0.62
Venue xG against / match
2.32
Last 6 xGD / match
-1.26
Venue attack rating
0.66
Venue defence rating
1.29

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Blackburn Rovers’s side.

  1. 7 Nov · Home

    West Ham United2–1

    xG 0.88 for · 1.34 against

  2. 3 Nov · Home

    Stoke City1–2

    xG 1.82 for · 1.22 against

  3. 31 Oct · Away

    Swansea City0–4

    xG 0.53 for · 2.78 against

  4. 24 Oct · Home

    Wrexham2–0

    xG 1.37 for · 1.60 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    West Bromwich Albion2–3

    xG 0.84 for · 4.19 against

Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Burnley expected goals 1.62, Blackburn Rovers 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Burnley goals012345
08.07.23.31.00.2
113.011.75.31.60.40.1
210.59.54.31.30.30.1
35.75.12.30.70.2
42.32.10.90.30.1
50.70.70.30.1
Burnley win, per cent
54.3%
Draw, per cent
24.8%
Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
20.9%
0-0, per cent
8.0%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
46.1%
Most likely score
1-0

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.

League matches

Newest first. Scores and xG from Burnley’s side.

  1. 7 Nov · Away

    Cardiff City4–5

    xG 2.38 for · 4.61 against

  2. 3 Nov · Away

    Queens Park Rangers1–1

    xG 0.15 for · 1.76 against

  3. 31 Oct · Home

    Portsmouth0–0

    xG 1.89 for · 0.25 against

  4. 24 Oct · Away

    Lincoln City1–4

    xG 2.46 for · 2.13 against

  5. 16 Oct · Home

    Wolverhampton Wanderers1–2

    xG 1.03 for · 2.00 against

  6. 13 Oct · Home

    Charlton Athletic2–2

    xG 1.01 for · 2.34 against

  7. 10 Oct · Away

    Watford4–0

    xG 1.94 for · 0.75 against

  8. 19 Sept · Home

    Derby County1–1

    xG 0.45 for · 1.75 against

  9. 12 Sept · Away

    Swansea City1–3

    xG 1.73 for · 2.63 against

  10. 8 Sept · Away

    Wrexham1–1

    xG 1.50 for · 1.35 against

  11. 5 Sept · Home

    Bristol City1–2

    xG 0.26 for · 1.07 against

  12. 2 Sept · Home

    Middlesbrough1–1

    xG 0.68 for · 0.97 against

  13. 29 Aug · Away

    Norwich City1–4

    xG 1.38 for · 2.30 against

  14. 23 Aug · Away

    West Bromwich Albion1–3

    xG 1.18 for · 1.63 against

  15. 16 Aug · Home

    West Ham United2–2

    xG 2.10 for · 1.33 against

Burnley league matches with xG
DateH/AOpponentScorexGxGAGF-xG
7 NovACardiff City4-52.384.61+1.62
3 NovAQueens Park Rangers1-10.151.76+0.85
31 OctHPortsmouth0-01.890.25-1.89
24 OctALincoln City1-42.462.13-1.46
16 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1-21.032.00-0.03
13 OctHCharlton Athletic2-21.012.34+0.99
10 OctAWatford4-01.940.75+2.06
19 SeptHDerby County1-10.451.75+0.55
12 SeptASwansea City1-31.732.63-0.73
8 SeptAWrexham1-11.501.35-0.50
5 SeptHBristol City1-20.261.07+0.74
2 SeptHMiddlesbrough1-10.680.97+0.32
29 AugANorwich City1-41.382.30-0.38
23 AugAWest Bromwich Albion1-31.181.63-0.18
16 AugHWest Ham United2-22.101.33-0.10

Next five

Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.

Sun 22 Nov, 12:00 · Home

Burnley v Blackburn Rovers

Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90

Home

54.3%

16/19 (1.84)

Draw

24.8%

73/24 (4.03)

Away

20.9%

53/14 (4.78)

The model: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers

The model

What the expected goals say

Burnley expected goals 1.62, Blackburn Rovers 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Burnley goals012345
08.07.23.31.00.2
113.011.75.31.60.40.1
210.59.54.31.30.30.1
35.75.12.30.70.2
42.32.10.90.30.1
50.70.70.30.1
Burnley win, per cent
54.3%
Draw, per cent
24.8%
Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
20.9%
0-0, per cent
8.0%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
46.1%
Most likely score
1-0

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Home

Burnley v Birmingham City

Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68

Home

25.5%

38/13 (3.92)

Draw

24.1%

22/7 (4.14)

Away

50.4%

1/1 (1.99)

The model: Burnley v Birmingham City

The model

What the expected goals say

Burnley expected goals 1.13, Birmingham City 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Birmingham City goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Burnley goals012345
06.010.18.54.82.00.7
16.811.49.65.42.30.8
23.86.45.43.01.30.4
31.42.42.01.10.50.2
40.40.70.60.30.1
50.10.20.10.1
Burnley win, per cent
25.5%
Draw, per cent
24.1%
Birmingham City win, per cent
50.4%
0-0, per cent
6.0%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
53.4%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away

Millwall v Burnley

Expected home goals 2.40 · expected away goals 1.49

Home

57.7%

11/15 (1.73)

Draw

19.2%

80/19 (5.21)

Away

23.1%

73/22 (4.32)

The model: Millwall v Burnley

The model

What the expected goals say

Millwall expected goals 2.40, Burnley 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Burnley goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Millwall goals012345
02.13.12.31.10.40.1
14.97.35.52.71.00.3
25.98.86.53.21.20.4
34.77.05.22.61.00.3
42.84.23.11.50.60.2
51.42.01.50.70.30.1
Millwall win, per cent
57.7%
Draw, per cent
19.2%
Burnley win, per cent
23.1%
0-0, per cent
2.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
74.4%
Most likely score
2-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sun 6 Dec, 12:00 · Home

Burnley v Preston North End

Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.24

Home

38.4%

8/5 (2.60)

Draw

26.7%

11/4 (3.75)

Away

34.9%

28/15 (2.87)

The model: Burnley v Preston North End

The model

What the expected goals say

Burnley expected goals 1.31, Preston North End 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Preston North End goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Burnley goals012345
07.89.76.02.50.80.2
110.312.77.83.21.00.2
26.78.35.12.10.70.2
32.93.62.30.90.30.1
41.01.20.70.30.1
50.30.30.20.1
Burnley win, per cent
38.4%
Draw, per cent
26.7%
Preston North End win, per cent
34.9%
0-0, per cent
7.8%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
46.9%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Wed 9 Dec, 20:00 · Away

Southampton v Burnley

Expected home goals 2.25 · expected away goals 1.49

Home

54.9%

14/17 (1.82)

Draw

20.1%

4/1 (4.98)

Away

25.1%

3/1 (3.99)

The model: Southampton v Burnley

The model

What the expected goals say

Southampton expected goals 2.25, Burnley 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Burnley goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Southampton goals012345
02.43.52.61.30.50.1
15.37.95.92.91.10.3
26.09.06.73.31.20.4
34.56.75.02.50.90.3
42.53.82.81.40.50.2
51.11.71.30.60.20.1
Southampton win, per cent
54.9%
Draw, per cent
20.1%
Burnley win, per cent
25.1%
0-0, per cent
2.4%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
72.2%
Most likely score
2-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

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