Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Millwall
16th on points, with 18. 7th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.87 xG for, 21.96 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +4.91
- GF minus xG
- -3.87
- Last 10 xGD
- +1.75
- xG per match
- 1.79
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.79
- xG against / match
- 1.46
- xGD / match
- +0.33
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.65
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- +0.18
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.57
- xG against / match
- 1.58
- xGD / match
- -0.01
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.22 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.07 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.00.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Millwall v Queens Park Rangers, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 48.4% (16/15), draw 24.1% (41/13), away 27.5% (50/19). Expected home goals 1.68, expected away goals 1.21. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
Home side
Millwall
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.22
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Millwall’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 0.42 for · 3.14 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.42 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
Derby County4–1xG 3.73 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
Portsmouth1–2xG 0.84 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Home
Lincoln City2–2xG 2.12 for · 1.32 against
Away side
Queens Park Rangers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.25
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.92
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Queens Park Rangers’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Lincoln City2–1xG 1.73 for · 1.52 against
3 Nov · Home
Burnley1–1xG 1.76 for · 0.15 against
31 Oct · Away
Southampton1–4xG 0.76 for · 1.21 against
24 Oct · Home
Swansea City5–0xG 3.90 for · 0.43 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.96 for · 1.31 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.21.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 1.68, Queens Park Rangers 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Queens Park Rangers goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 48.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Millwall’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 0.42 for · 3.14 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.42 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
Derby County4–1xG 3.73 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
Portsmouth1–2xG 0.84 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Home
Lincoln City2–2xG 2.12 for · 1.32 against
13 Oct · Home
Swansea City0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.69 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.65 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 2.68 for · 1.87 against
15 Sept · Away
xG 1.69 for · 1.52 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.63 for · 1.23 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 2.67 for · 1.15 against
2 Sept · Home
Wrexham0–3xG 0.24 for · 0.88 against
29 Aug · Away
Southampton1–5xG 1.35 for · 3.62 against
22 Aug · Home
Norwich City3–0xG 2.69 for · 1.02 against
15 Aug · Away
Bristol City2–0xG 3.40 for · 0.52 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | West Bromwich Albion | 0-3 | 0.42 | 3.14 | -0.42 |
| 3 Nov | A | Birmingham City | 0-3 | 1.42 | 1.35 | -1.42 |
| 31 Oct | H | Derby County | 4-1 | 3.73 | 1.25 | +0.27 |
| 24 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 1-2 | 0.84 | 0.75 | +0.16 |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln City | 2-2 | 2.12 | 1.32 | -0.12 |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea City | 0-1 | 0.90 | 1.69 | -0.90 |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1-0 | 1.09 | 0.65 | -0.09 |
| 19 Sept | H | West Ham United | 2-2 | 2.68 | 1.87 | -0.68 |
| 15 Sept | A | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 1.69 | 1.52 | +0.31 |
| 12 Sept | A | Blackburn Rovers | 1-3 | 1.63 | 1.23 | -0.63 |
| 5 Sept | H | Bolton Wanderers | 4-0 | 2.67 | 1.15 | +1.33 |
| 2 Sept | H | Wrexham | 0-3 | 0.24 | 0.88 | -0.24 |
| 29 Aug | A | Southampton | 1-5 | 1.35 | 3.62 | -0.35 |
| 22 Aug | H | Norwich City | 3-0 | 2.69 | 1.02 | +0.31 |
| 15 Aug | A | Bristol City | 2-0 | 3.40 | 0.52 | -1.40 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
48.4%
16/15 (2.07)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
27.5%
50/19 (3.63)
The model: Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 1.68, Queens Park Rangers 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Queens Park Rangers goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 48.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
32.6%
31/15 (3.07)
The model: Stoke City v Millwall
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.30, Millwall 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Millwall goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Millwall win, per cent
- 32.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
19.2%
80/19 (5.21)
Away
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
The model: Millwall v Burnley
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 2.40, Burnley 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Burnley goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.2%
- Burnley win, per cent
- 23.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 74.4%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
Draw
24.6%
52/17 (4.06)
Away
44.8%
16/13 (2.23)
The model: Watford v Millwall
The model
What the expected goals say
Watford expected goals 1.27, Millwall 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Watford goals down, Millwall goals across.
| Watford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Watford win, per cent
- 30.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Millwall win, per cent
- 44.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Millwall v Sheffield United
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
46.6%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
24.2%
25/8 (4.13)
Away
29.2%
17/7 (3.43)
The model: Millwall v Sheffield United
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 1.65, Sheffield United 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Sheffield United goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 46.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 29.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
