Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Southampton
7th on points, with 24. 6th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.16 xG for, 20.54 against, goal difference +14.
- Season xGD
- +5.62
- GF minus xG
- +2.84
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.85
- xG per match
- 1.74
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.74
- xG against / match
- 1.37
- xGD / match
- +0.37
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.68
- xG against / match
- 1.40
- xGD / match
- +0.28
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.72
- xG against / match
- 1.46
- xGD / match
- +0.25
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.15 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.11 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.93.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Southampton v Derby County, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 62.6% (3/5), draw 19.6% (45/11), away 17.7% (51/11). Expected home goals 2.21, expected away goals 1.09. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Southampton v Derby County
Home side
Southampton
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.15
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Southampton’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.88 for · 1.35 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.38 for · 2.46 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 0.76 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.55 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.19 for · 1.53 against
Away side
Derby County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.10
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.04
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.20
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Derby County’s side.
6 Nov · Home
xG 2.07 for · 1.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–4xG 0.69 for · 2.40 against
31 Oct · Away
Millwall1–4xG 1.25 for · 3.73 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.16 for · 2.99 against
17 Oct · Home
Stoke City0–1xG 1.14 for · 0.59 against
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.21, Derby County 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 62.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 17.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Southampton’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.88 for · 1.35 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.38 for · 2.46 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 0.76 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.55 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.19 for · 1.53 against
14 Oct · Away
Norwich City1–0xG 2.10 for · 1.18 against
11 Oct · Home
Portsmouth1–0xG 1.28 for · 1.18 against
19 Sept · Away
Wrexham1–2xG 2.08 for · 0.54 against
12 Sept · Home
Bristol City4–1xG 1.71 for · 2.24 against
8 Sept · Home
Swansea City3–1xG 1.44 for · 1.22 against
5 Sept · Away
Lincoln City1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.93 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.02 for · 1.55 against
29 Aug · Home
Millwall5–1xG 3.62 for · 1.35 against
22 Aug · Home
Stoke City3–1xG 2.32 for · 0.93 against
16 Aug · Away
Watford1–2xG 1.71 for · 0.81 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Preston North End | 0-1 | 1.88 | 1.35 | -1.88 |
| 3 Nov | A | West Bromwich Albion | 1-1 | 1.38 | 2.46 | -0.38 |
| 31 Oct | H | Queens Park Rangers | 4-1 | 1.21 | 0.76 | +2.79 |
| 24 Oct | A | West Ham United | 3-2 | 1.55 | 1.51 | +1.45 |
| 17 Oct | H | Bolton Wanderers | 0-0 | 2.19 | 1.53 | -2.19 |
| 14 Oct | A | Norwich City | 1-0 | 2.10 | 1.18 | -1.10 |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1-0 | 1.28 | 1.18 | -0.28 |
| 19 Sept | A | Wrexham | 1-2 | 2.08 | 0.54 | -1.08 |
| 12 Sept | H | Bristol City | 4-1 | 1.71 | 2.24 | +2.29 |
| 8 Sept | H | Swansea City | 3-1 | 1.44 | 1.22 | +1.56 |
| 5 Sept | A | Lincoln City | 1-1 | 0.67 | 1.93 | +0.33 |
| 1 Sept | A | Birmingham City | 1-1 | 1.02 | 1.55 | -0.02 |
| 29 Aug | H | Millwall | 5-1 | 3.62 | 1.35 | +1.38 |
| 22 Aug | H | Stoke City | 3-1 | 2.32 | 0.93 | +0.68 |
| 16 Aug | A | Watford | 1-2 | 1.71 | 0.81 | -0.71 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Southampton v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
62.6%
3/5 (1.60)
Draw
19.6%
45/11 (5.09)
Away
17.7%
51/11 (5.64)
The model: Southampton v Derby County
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.21, Derby County 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 62.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 17.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Sheffield United v Southampton
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
30.8%
47/21 (3.24)
Draw
24.6%
49/16 (4.06)
Away
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
The model: Sheffield United v Southampton
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.28, Southampton 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Southampton goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 30.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Southampton win, per cent
- 44.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 27 Nov, 20:00 · Home
Southampton v Middlesbrough
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.83
Home
27.4%
61/23 (3.65)
Draw
22.9%
27/8 (4.37)
Away
49.8%
1/1 (2.01)
The model: Southampton v Middlesbrough
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 1.30, Middlesbrough 1.83: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Middlesbrough goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 27.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 49.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.08
Home
51.5%
16/17 (1.94)
Draw
24.2%
47/15 (4.13)
Away
24.3%
53/17 (4.12)
The model: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 1.68, Southampton 1.08: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Southampton goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 51.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Southampton win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
54.9%
14/17 (1.82)
Draw
20.1%
4/1 (4.98)
Away
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
The model: Southampton v Burnley
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.25, Burnley 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Burnley goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.1%
- Burnley win, per cent
- 25.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 72.2%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
