Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Lincoln City
21st on points, with 15. 16th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 19.98 xG for, 22.17 against, goal difference -11.
- Season xGD
- -2.19
- GF minus xG
- -4.98
- Last 10 xGD
- -3.55
- xG per match
- 1.33
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.33
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- -0.15
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.24
- xG against / match
- 1.59
- xGD / match
- -0.36
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.28
- xG against / match
- 2.04
- xGD / match
- -0.76
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.04 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.10. Away attack 0.84 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.93.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Lincoln City v Wrexham, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.6% (32/21), draw 26.3% (14/5), away 34.1% (31/16). Expected home goals 1.36, expected away goals 1.24. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Lincoln City v Wrexham
Home side
Lincoln City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.70
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 1.10
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Lincoln City’s side.
Away side
Wrexham
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.14
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.85
- Venue defence rating
- 0.82
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wrexham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.17 for · 1.72 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.44 for · 0.89 against
30 Oct · Away
xG 0.64 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.60 for · 1.37 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.24.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.36, Wrexham 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 39.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.3%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Lincoln City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.73 against
3 Nov · Away
Watford0–1xG 0.77 for · 0.63 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 2.07 against
24 Oct · Home
Burnley4–1xG 2.13 for · 2.46 against
17 Oct · Away
Millwall2–2xG 1.32 for · 2.12 against
14 Oct · Home
xG 0.35 for · 3.21 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.39 for · 0.68 against
19 Sept · Home
Swansea City1–2xG 2.11 for · 0.92 against
15 Sept · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 0.53 for · 1.53 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.66 for · 0.58 against
5 Sept · Home
Southampton1–1xG 1.93 for · 0.67 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 1.46 for · 0.24 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.32 for · 1.89 against
22 Aug · Home
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.32 for · 1.21 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.57 for · 2.23 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Queens Park Rangers | 1-2 | 1.52 | 1.73 | -0.52 |
| 3 Nov | A | Watford | 0-1 | 0.77 | 0.63 | -0.77 |
| 31 Oct | H | Birmingham City | 1-3 | 1.60 | 2.07 | -0.60 |
| 24 Oct | H | Burnley | 4-1 | 2.13 | 2.46 | +1.87 |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2-2 | 1.32 | 2.12 | +0.68 |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham United | 0-6 | 0.35 | 3.21 | -0.35 |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield United | 0-3 | 1.39 | 0.68 | -1.39 |
| 19 Sept | H | Swansea City | 1-2 | 2.11 | 0.92 | -1.11 |
| 15 Sept | A | Bristol City | 1-0 | 0.53 | 1.53 | +0.47 |
| 12 Sept | A | Preston North End | 1-0 | 0.66 | 0.58 | +0.34 |
| 5 Sept | H | Southampton | 1-1 | 1.93 | 0.67 | -0.93 |
| 1 Sept | H | Blackburn Rovers | 0-0 | 1.46 | 0.24 | -1.46 |
| 29 Aug | A | Bolton Wanderers | 1-0 | 1.32 | 1.89 | -0.32 |
| 22 Aug | H | Portsmouth | 1-3 | 2.32 | 1.21 | -1.32 |
| 15 Aug | A | Middlesbrough | 1-2 | 0.57 | 2.23 | +0.43 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
39.6%
32/21 (2.52)
Draw
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
Away
34.1%
31/16 (2.94)
The model: Lincoln City v Wrexham
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.36, Wrexham 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 39.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.3%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
Expected home goals 1.07 · expected away goals 0.99
Home
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
Draw
30.3%
53/23 (3.31)
Away
32.7%
37/18 (3.06)
The model: Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
The model
What the expected goals say
Charlton Athletic expected goals 1.07, Lincoln City 0.99: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Charlton Athletic goals down, Lincoln City goals across.
| Charlton Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 37.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 30.3%
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 32.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 12.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 34.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Lincoln City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.70
Home
29.6%
19/8 (3.37)
Draw
23.7%
45/14 (4.21)
Away
46.6%
8/7 (2.15)
The model: Lincoln City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.31, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.70: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Wolverhampton Wanderers goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 29.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 46.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Cardiff City v Lincoln City
Expected home goals 2.18 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
58.3%
5/7 (1.72)
Draw
20.3%
55/14 (4.93)
Away
21.4%
11/3 (4.67)
The model: Cardiff City v Lincoln City
The model
What the expected goals say
Cardiff City expected goals 2.18, Lincoln City 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cardiff City goals down, Lincoln City goals across.
| Cardiff City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 58.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.3%
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 21.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.7%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
53.9%
6/7 (1.86)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
Away
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
The model: Lincoln City v Stoke City
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.91, Stoke City 1.20: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Stoke City goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 53.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 23.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
