Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Cardiff City
14th on points, with 18. 9th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 30.59 xG for, 26.55 against, goal difference +0.
- Season xGD
- +4.04
- GF minus xG
- -3.59
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.04
- xG per match
- 2.04
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.04
- xG against / match
- 1.77
- xGD / match
- +0.27
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.33
- xG against / match
- 1.72
- xGD / match
- +0.60
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.37
- xG against / match
- 1.99
- xGD / match
- +0.38
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.47 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.12. Away attack 0.97 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.15.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Norwich City v Cardiff City, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 44.6% (26/21), draw 23.8% (77/24), away 31.6% (13/6). Expected home goals 1.68, expected away goals 1.38. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Norwich City v Cardiff City
Home side
Norwich City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.37
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.48
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 0.91
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Norwich City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Bristol City5–0xG 2.91 for · 1.51 against
3 Nov · Away
Derby County4–0xG 2.40 for · 0.69 against
31 Oct · Home
Watford3–2xG 1.08 for · 1.06 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.77 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–1xG 0.39 for · 1.23 against
Away side
Cardiff City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.98
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.15
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cardiff City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Burnley5–4xG 4.61 for · 2.38 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.12 for · 2.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.90 for · 1.58 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.97 for · 1.04 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.85 for · 2.76 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.68, Cardiff City 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 31.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Cardiff City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Burnley5–4xG 4.61 for · 2.38 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.12 for · 2.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.90 for · 1.58 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.97 for · 1.04 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.85 for · 2.76 against
13 Oct · Home
Watford5–1xG 3.79 for · 1.43 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.42 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 2.60 for · 1.26 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.79 for · 0.48 against
8 Sept · Home
Stoke City1–1xG 3.60 for · 1.11 against
5 Sept · Away
Portsmouth0–2xG 1.43 for · 2.07 against
2 Sept · Away
xG 0.57 for · 2.75 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 2.24 for · 1.28 against
22 Aug · Away
Derby County2–2xG 2.26 for · 1.80 against
17 Aug · Home
Wrexham1–1xG 0.81 for · 1.41 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Burnley | 5-4 | 4.61 | 2.38 | +0.39 |
| 4 Nov | H | West Ham United | 3-3 | 1.12 | 2.78 | +1.88 |
| 31 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-3 | 0.90 | 1.58 | -0.90 |
| 24 Oct | H | Birmingham City | 1-0 | 2.97 | 1.04 | -1.97 |
| 17 Oct | A | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 0.85 | 2.76 | +1.15 |
| 13 Oct | H | Watford | 5-1 | 3.79 | 1.43 | +1.21 |
| 10 Oct | A | Blackburn Rovers | 1-2 | 1.05 | 2.42 | -0.05 |
| 19 Sept | H | Charlton Athletic | 3-1 | 2.60 | 1.26 | +0.40 |
| 12 Sept | A | Bolton Wanderers | 0-1 | 1.79 | 0.48 | -1.79 |
| 8 Sept | H | Stoke City | 1-1 | 3.60 | 1.11 | -2.60 |
| 5 Sept | A | Portsmouth | 0-2 | 1.43 | 2.07 | -1.43 |
| 2 Sept | A | Queens Park Rangers | 1-2 | 0.57 | 2.75 | +0.43 |
| 29 Aug | H | Sheffield United | 2-2 | 2.24 | 1.28 | -0.24 |
| 22 Aug | A | Derby County | 2-2 | 2.26 | 1.80 | -0.26 |
| 17 Aug | H | Wrexham | 1-1 | 0.81 | 1.41 | +0.19 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Norwich City v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38
Home
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
23.8%
77/24 (4.21)
Away
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
The model: Norwich City v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.68, Cardiff City 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 31.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Cardiff City v Preston North End
Expected home goals 2.45 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
61.5%
5/8 (1.63)
Draw
18.5%
101/23 (5.39)
Away
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
The model: Cardiff City v Preston North End
The model
What the expected goals say
Cardiff City expected goals 2.45, Preston North End 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cardiff City goals down, Preston North End goals across.
| Cardiff City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 61.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.5%
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 20.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 73.3%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 12:00 · Away
Swansea City v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 2.02 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
58.7%
7/10 (1.70)
Draw
21.2%
89/24 (4.71)
Away
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
The model: Swansea City v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 2.02, Cardiff City 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 58.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.2%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 20.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Cardiff City v Lincoln City
Expected home goals 2.18 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
58.3%
5/7 (1.72)
Draw
20.3%
55/14 (4.93)
Away
21.4%
11/3 (4.67)
The model: Cardiff City v Lincoln City
The model
What the expected goals say
Cardiff City expected goals 2.18, Lincoln City 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cardiff City goals down, Lincoln City goals across.
| Cardiff City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 58.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.3%
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 21.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.7%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Away
West Bromwich Albion v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 2.10 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
59.7%
15/22 (1.68)
Draw
20.6%
77/20 (4.85)
Away
19.7%
53/13 (5.08)
The model: West Bromwich Albion v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Bromwich Albion expected goals 2.10, Cardiff City 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Bromwich Albion goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| West Bromwich Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 59.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.6%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.5%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
