Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
West Bromwich Albion
5th on points, with 28. 8th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 24.91 xG for, 20.73 against, goal difference +8.
- Season xGD
- +4.18
- GF minus xG
- -1.91
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.98
- xG per match
- 1.66
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.66
- xG against / match
- 1.38
- xGD / match
- +0.28
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.84
- xG against / match
- 1.24
- xGD / match
- +0.60
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.57
- xG against / match
- 1.00
- xGD / match
- +1.57
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.14 from 8 home matches. Home defence 0.87. Away attack 1.01 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.05.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 53.7% (19/22), draw 22.8% (44/13), away 23.5% (75/23). Expected home goals 1.84, expected away goals 1.14. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Home side
Swansea City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swansea City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.91 against
3 Nov · Away
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.25 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.78 for · 0.53 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.43 for · 3.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 1.15 against
Away side
West Bromwich Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.73
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.57
- Venue attack rating
- 1.01
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from West Bromwich Albion’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 3.14 for · 0.42 against
3 Nov · Home
Southampton1–1xG 2.46 for · 1.38 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.06 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 2.62 for · 2.16 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 4.19 for · 0.84 against
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.84, West Bromwich Albion 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 53.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from West Bromwich Albion’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 3.14 for · 0.42 against
3 Nov · Home
Southampton1–1xG 2.46 for · 1.38 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.06 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 2.62 for · 2.16 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 4.19 for · 0.84 against
13 Oct · Away
Wrexham2–1xG 0.96 for · 0.30 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 2.55 against
20 Sept · Away
xG 0.29 for · 1.95 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.22 for · 0.62 against
9 Sept · Away
Derby County1–0xG 0.38 for · 1.27 against
5 Sept · Home
Watford1–0xG 1.14 for · 1.26 against
2 Sept · Home
xG 0.60 for · 0.39 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.32 for · 2.55 against
23 Aug · Home
Burnley3–1xG 1.63 for · 1.18 against
15 Aug · Away
Norwich City2–1xG 1.85 for · 2.96 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Millwall | 3-0 | 3.14 | 0.42 | -0.14 |
| 3 Nov | H | Southampton | 1-1 | 2.46 | 1.38 | -1.46 |
| 31 Oct | A | West Ham United | 3-1 | 2.06 | 0.90 | +0.94 |
| 24 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1-1 | 2.62 | 2.16 | -1.62 |
| 17 Oct | H | Blackburn Rovers | 3-2 | 4.19 | 0.84 | -1.19 |
| 13 Oct | A | Wrexham | 2-1 | 0.96 | 0.30 | +1.04 |
| 10 Oct | H | Birmingham City | 0-1 | 1.05 | 2.55 | -1.05 |
| 20 Sept | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1 | 0.29 | 1.95 | -0.29 |
| 12 Sept | H | Queens Park Rangers | 1-1 | 1.22 | 0.62 | -0.22 |
| 9 Sept | A | Derby County | 1-0 | 0.38 | 1.27 | +0.62 |
| 5 Sept | H | Watford | 1-0 | 1.14 | 1.26 | -0.14 |
| 2 Sept | H | Charlton Athletic | 1-1 | 0.60 | 0.39 | +0.40 |
| 29 Aug | A | Middlesbrough | 1-3 | 1.32 | 2.55 | -0.32 |
| 23 Aug | H | Burnley | 3-1 | 1.63 | 1.18 | +1.37 |
| 15 Aug | A | Norwich City | 2-1 | 1.85 | 2.96 | +0.15 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14
Home
53.7%
19/22 (1.86)
Draw
22.8%
44/13 (4.38)
Away
23.5%
75/23 (4.26)
The model: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.84, West Bromwich Albion 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 53.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Bolton Wanderers v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 1.86
Home
34.0%
33/17 (2.94)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
43.8%
9/7 (2.28)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.62, West Bromwich Albion 1.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 34.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 43.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.39
Home
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
Draw
23.9%
67/21 (4.19)
Away
32.3%
21/10 (3.10)
The model: West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Bromwich Albion expected goals 1.66, Bristol City 1.39: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Bromwich Albion goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| West Bromwich Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 43.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 32.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Portsmouth v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
42.7%
31/23 (2.34)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
32.5%
29/14 (3.07)
The model: Portsmouth v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Portsmouth expected goals 1.55, West Bromwich Albion 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Portsmouth goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Portsmouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 42.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 32.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Home
West Bromwich Albion v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 2.10 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
59.7%
15/22 (1.68)
Draw
20.6%
77/20 (4.85)
Away
19.7%
53/13 (5.08)
The model: West Bromwich Albion v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
West Bromwich Albion expected goals 2.10, Cardiff City 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Bromwich Albion goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| West Bromwich Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 59.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.6%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.5%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
