Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Portsmouth
11th on points, with 22. 13th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 17.63 xG for, 18.55 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- -0.92
- GF minus xG
- +2.37
- Last 10 xGD
- -1.60
- xG per match
- 1.18
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.18
- xG against / match
- 1.24
- xGD / match
- -0.06
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.00
- xG against / match
- 1.16
- xGD / match
- -0.16
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.80
- xG against / match
- 1.18
- xGD / match
- -0.38
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.92 from 8 home matches. Home defence 0.98. Away attack 0.80 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.83.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 32.9% (49/24), draw 25.5% (41/14), away 41.7% (7/5). Expected home goals 1.27, expected away goals 1.47. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Home side
Bolton Wanderers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.50
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.13
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.38
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bolton Wanderers’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Derby County1–3xG 1.86 for · 2.07 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.78 for · 0.79 against
31 Oct · Home
Bristol City2–3xG 1.38 for · 3.33 against
23 Oct · Home
xG 0.97 for · 4.38 against
17 Oct · Away
Southampton0–0xG 1.53 for · 2.19 against
Away side
Portsmouth
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.91
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.17
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Portsmouth’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 0.51 for · 0.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Swansea City3–1xG 1.35 for · 2.25 against
31 Oct · Away
Burnley0–0xG 0.25 for · 1.89 against
24 Oct · Home
Millwall2–1xG 0.75 for · 0.84 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.73 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.27, Portsmouth 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 32.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 41.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Portsmouth’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 0.51 for · 0.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Swansea City3–1xG 1.35 for · 2.25 against
31 Oct · Away
Burnley0–0xG 0.25 for · 1.89 against
24 Oct · Home
Millwall2–1xG 0.75 for · 0.84 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.73 for · 0.87 against
17 Oct · Away
Norwich City1–0xG 1.23 for · 0.39 against
14 Oct · Home
xG 1.97 for · 1.78 against
11 Oct · Away
Southampton0–1xG 1.18 for · 1.28 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.59 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.40 for · 0.82 against
5 Sept · Home
Cardiff City2–0xG 2.07 for · 1.43 against
1 Sept · Home
Derby County0–2xG 0.84 for · 0.55 against
29 Aug · Away
Bristol City1–2xG 1.37 for · 0.61 against
22 Aug · Away
Lincoln City3–1xG 1.21 for · 2.32 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 2.17 for · 2.07 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Stoke City | 1-2 | 0.51 | 0.86 | +0.49 |
| 3 Nov | H | Swansea City | 3-1 | 1.35 | 2.25 | +1.65 |
| 31 Oct | A | Burnley | 0-0 | 0.25 | 1.89 | -0.25 |
| 24 Oct | H | Millwall | 2-1 | 0.75 | 0.84 | +1.25 |
| 20 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-1 | 0.73 | 0.87 | +0.27 |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich City | 1-0 | 1.23 | 0.39 | -0.23 |
| 14 Oct | H | Sheffield United | 3-2 | 1.97 | 1.78 | +1.03 |
| 11 Oct | A | Southampton | 0-1 | 1.18 | 1.28 | -1.18 |
| 19 Sept | H | Blackburn Rovers | 2-2 | 1.60 | 0.59 | +0.40 |
| 12 Sept | A | Charlton Athletic | 0-0 | 0.40 | 0.82 | -0.40 |
| 5 Sept | H | Cardiff City | 2-0 | 2.07 | 1.43 | -0.07 |
| 1 Sept | H | Derby County | 0-2 | 0.84 | 0.55 | -0.84 |
| 29 Aug | A | Bristol City | 1-2 | 1.37 | 0.61 | -0.37 |
| 22 Aug | A | Lincoln City | 3-1 | 1.21 | 2.32 | +1.79 |
| 15 Aug | H | Queens Park Rangers | 1-3 | 2.17 | 2.07 | -1.17 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47
Home
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
41.7%
7/5 (2.40)
The model: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.27, Portsmouth 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 32.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 41.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Portsmouth v West Ham United
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.64
Home
31.8%
15/7 (3.14)
Draw
24.0%
19/6 (4.16)
Away
44.2%
24/19 (2.26)
The model: Portsmouth v West Ham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Portsmouth expected goals 1.36, West Ham United 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Portsmouth goals down, West Ham United goals across.
| Portsmouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 31.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 44.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
37.3%
37/22 (2.68)
Draw
29.6%
31/13 (3.38)
Away
33.2%
2/1 (3.01)
The model: Wrexham v Portsmouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Wrexham expected goals 1.11, Portsmouth 1.03: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wrexham goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Wrexham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 37.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.6%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 33.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 36.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Portsmouth v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
42.7%
31/23 (2.34)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
32.5%
29/14 (3.07)
The model: Portsmouth v West Bromwich Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Portsmouth expected goals 1.55, West Bromwich Albion 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Portsmouth goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Portsmouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 42.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 32.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 9 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Preston North End v Portsmouth
Expected home goals 1.15 · expected away goals 1.20
Home
35.0%
13/7 (2.86)
Draw
28.0%
18/7 (3.57)
Away
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
The model: Preston North End v Portsmouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Preston North End expected goals 1.15, Portsmouth 1.20: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Preston North End goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Preston North End goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 35.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.0%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 41.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
