Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Derby County
23rd on points, with 10. 24th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 16.16 xG for, 29.85 against, goal difference -16.
- Season xGD
- -13.69
- GF minus xG
- -2.16
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.99
- xG per match
- 1.08
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.08
- xG against / match
- 1.99
- xGD / match
- -0.91
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.20
- xG against / match
- 1.90
- xGD / match
- -0.70
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.21
- xG against / match
- 2.25
- xGD / match
- -1.04
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.28. Away attack 0.82 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.20.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Southampton v Derby County, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 62.6% (3/5), draw 19.6% (45/11), away 17.7% (51/11). Expected home goals 2.21, expected away goals 1.09. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Southampton v Derby County
Home side
Southampton
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.15
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Southampton’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.88 for · 1.35 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.38 for · 2.46 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 0.76 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.55 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.19 for · 1.53 against
Away side
Derby County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.10
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.04
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.20
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Derby County’s side.
6 Nov · Home
xG 2.07 for · 1.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–4xG 0.69 for · 2.40 against
31 Oct · Away
Millwall1–4xG 1.25 for · 3.73 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.16 for · 2.99 against
17 Oct · Home
Stoke City0–1xG 1.14 for · 0.59 against
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.21, Derby County 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 62.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 17.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Derby County’s side.
6 Nov · Home
xG 2.07 for · 1.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–4xG 0.69 for · 2.40 against
31 Oct · Away
Millwall1–4xG 1.25 for · 3.73 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.16 for · 2.99 against
17 Oct · Home
Stoke City0–1xG 1.14 for · 0.59 against
14 Oct · Away
xG 0.96 for · 1.96 against
10 Oct · Home
Wrexham1–1xG 0.60 for · 1.46 against
19 Sept · Away
Burnley1–1xG 1.75 for · 0.45 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.11 for · 3.17 against
9 Sept · Home
xG 1.27 for · 0.38 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 0.11 for · 3.79 against
1 Sept · Away
Portsmouth2–0xG 0.55 for · 0.84 against
29 Aug · Home
Swansea City0–3xG 0.70 for · 3.00 against
22 Aug · Home
Cardiff City2–2xG 1.80 for · 2.26 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 1.00 for · 0.97 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | H | Bolton Wanderers | 3-1 | 2.07 | 1.86 | +0.93 |
| 3 Nov | H | Norwich City | 0-4 | 0.69 | 2.40 | -0.69 |
| 31 Oct | A | Millwall | 1-4 | 1.25 | 3.73 | -0.25 |
| 24 Oct | A | Sheffield United | 1-1 | 1.16 | 2.99 | -0.16 |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke City | 0-1 | 1.14 | 0.59 | -1.14 |
| 14 Oct | A | Queens Park Rangers | 1-4 | 0.96 | 1.96 | +0.04 |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1-1 | 0.60 | 1.46 | +0.40 |
| 19 Sept | A | Burnley | 1-1 | 1.75 | 0.45 | -0.75 |
| 12 Sept | H | Birmingham City | 1-2 | 1.11 | 3.17 | -0.11 |
| 9 Sept | H | West Bromwich Albion | 0-1 | 1.27 | 0.38 | -1.27 |
| 5 Sept | A | West Ham United | 0-3 | 0.11 | 3.79 | -0.11 |
| 1 Sept | A | Portsmouth | 2-0 | 0.55 | 0.84 | +1.45 |
| 29 Aug | H | Swansea City | 0-3 | 0.70 | 3.00 | -0.70 |
| 22 Aug | H | Cardiff City | 2-2 | 1.80 | 2.26 | +0.20 |
| 15 Aug | A | Charlton Athletic | 1-2 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.00 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Southampton v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
62.6%
3/5 (1.60)
Draw
19.6%
45/11 (5.09)
Away
17.7%
51/11 (5.64)
The model: Southampton v Derby County
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.21, Derby County 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 62.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 17.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 20:00 · Away
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.19 · expected away goals 0.80
Home
69.0%
9/20 (1.45)
Draw
18.6%
92/21 (5.38)
Away
12.4%
92/13 (8.08)
The model: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 2.19, Derby County 0.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 69.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 12.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.4%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
42.4%
15/11 (2.36)
Draw
24.9%
3/1 (4.02)
Away
32.8%
39/19 (3.05)
The model: Derby County v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Derby County expected goals 1.53, Watford 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Derby County goals down, Watford goals across.
| Derby County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Derby County win, per cent
- 42.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.9%
- Watford win, per cent
- 32.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Middlesbrough v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.24 · expected away goals 0.95
Home
66.6%
1/2 (1.50)
Draw
18.8%
69/16 (5.31)
Away
14.6%
111/19 (6.84)
The model: Middlesbrough v Derby County
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 2.24, Derby County 0.95: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 66.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.8%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 14.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.6%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 9 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Derby County v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.20 · expected away goals 2.03
Home
22.0%
39/11 (4.55)
Draw
21.3%
85/23 (4.70)
Away
56.7%
16/21 (1.76)
The model: Derby County v Bristol City
The model
What the expected goals say
Derby County expected goals 1.20, Bristol City 2.03: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Derby County goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| Derby County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Derby County win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.3%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 56.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
