Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Norwich City
12th on points, with 21. 11th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 24.63 xG for, 22.03 against, goal difference +8.
- Season xGD
- +2.60
- GF minus xG
- +7.37
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.87
- xG per match
- 1.64
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.64
- xG against / match
- 1.47
- xGD / match
- +0.17
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.39
- xG against / match
- 1.47
- xGD / match
- -0.09
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.62
- xG against / match
- 1.21
- xGD / match
- +0.41
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.91 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.07. Away attack 1.27 from 8 away matches. Away defence 0.94.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Norwich City v Cardiff City, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 44.6% (26/21), draw 23.8% (77/24), away 31.6% (13/6). Expected home goals 1.68, expected away goals 1.38. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Norwich City v Cardiff City
Home side
Norwich City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.37
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.48
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 0.91
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Norwich City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Bristol City5–0xG 2.91 for · 1.51 against
3 Nov · Away
Derby County4–0xG 2.40 for · 0.69 against
31 Oct · Home
Watford3–2xG 1.08 for · 1.06 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.77 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–1xG 0.39 for · 1.23 against
Away side
Cardiff City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.98
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.15
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cardiff City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Burnley5–4xG 4.61 for · 2.38 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.12 for · 2.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.90 for · 1.58 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.97 for · 1.04 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.85 for · 2.76 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.68, Cardiff City 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 31.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 7.4 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Norwich City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Bristol City5–0xG 2.91 for · 1.51 against
3 Nov · Away
Derby County4–0xG 2.40 for · 0.69 against
31 Oct · Home
Watford3–2xG 1.08 for · 1.06 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.77 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–1xG 0.39 for · 1.23 against
14 Oct · Home
Southampton0–1xG 1.18 for · 2.10 against
10 Oct · Away
Swansea City1–2xG 0.68 for · 2.36 against
20 Sept · Home
xG 0.69 for · 1.10 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.76 for · 2.38 against
9 Sept · Home
xG 1.01 for · 1.63 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 3.04 for · 0.79 against
1 Sept · Away
Stoke City0–1xG 1.44 for · 0.58 against
29 Aug · Home
Burnley4–1xG 2.30 for · 1.38 against
22 Aug · Away
Millwall0–3xG 1.02 for · 2.69 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 2.96 for · 1.85 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Bristol City | 5-0 | 2.91 | 1.51 | +2.09 |
| 3 Nov | A | Derby County | 4-0 | 2.40 | 0.69 | +1.60 |
| 31 Oct | H | Watford | 3-2 | 1.08 | 1.06 | +1.92 |
| 24 Oct | A | Charlton Athletic | 3-1 | 1.77 | 0.68 | +1.23 |
| 17 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 0-1 | 0.39 | 1.23 | -0.39 |
| 14 Oct | H | Southampton | 0-1 | 1.18 | 2.10 | -1.18 |
| 10 Oct | A | Swansea City | 1-2 | 0.68 | 2.36 | +0.32 |
| 20 Sept | H | Bolton Wanderers | 3-4 | 0.69 | 1.10 | +2.31 |
| 12 Sept | A | Middlesbrough | 3-4 | 1.76 | 2.38 | +1.24 |
| 9 Sept | H | Birmingham City | 2-1 | 1.01 | 1.63 | +0.99 |
| 5 Sept | A | Sheffield United | 3-1 | 3.04 | 0.79 | -0.04 |
| 1 Sept | A | Stoke City | 0-1 | 1.44 | 0.58 | -1.44 |
| 29 Aug | H | Burnley | 4-1 | 2.30 | 1.38 | +1.70 |
| 22 Aug | A | Millwall | 0-3 | 1.02 | 2.69 | -1.02 |
| 15 Aug | H | West Bromwich Albion | 1-2 | 2.96 | 1.85 | -1.96 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Norwich City v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38
Home
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
23.8%
77/24 (4.21)
Away
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
The model: Norwich City v Cardiff City
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.68, Cardiff City 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 31.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Norwich City v Queens Park Rangers
Expected home goals 1.25 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
35.4%
31/17 (2.82)
Draw
26.6%
58/21 (3.76)
Away
37.9%
18/11 (2.64)
The model: Norwich City v Queens Park Rangers
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.25, Queens Park Rangers 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Queens Park Rangers goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 35.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 37.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Preston North End v Norwich City
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.91
Home
26.4%
67/24 (3.79)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.48)
Away
51.3%
19/20 (1.95)
The model: Preston North End v Norwich City
The model
What the expected goals say
Preston North End expected goals 1.31, Norwich City 1.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Preston North End goals down, Norwich City goals across.
| Preston North End goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 26.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 51.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Draw
27.7%
47/18 (3.61)
Away
36.6%
26/15 (2.73)
The model: Norwich City v Wrexham
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.19, Wrexham 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 35.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.7%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 36.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 8 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Blackburn Rovers v Norwich City
Expected home goals 1.38 · expected away goals 1.65
Home
32.1%
19/9 (3.11)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
44.0%
14/11 (2.27)
The model: Blackburn Rovers v Norwich City
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackburn Rovers expected goals 1.38, Norwich City 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackburn Rovers goals down, Norwich City goals across.
| Blackburn Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 32.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
