Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Watford
20th on points, with 15. 23rd on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 14.84 xG for, 26.51 against, goal difference -10.
- Season xGD
- -11.67
- GF minus xG
- -1.84
- Last 10 xGD
- -8.50
- xG per match
- 0.99
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.99
- xG against / match
- 1.77
- xGD / match
- -0.78
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.96
- xG against / match
- 1.81
- xGD / match
- -0.85
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.08
- xG against / match
- 1.79
- xGD / match
- -0.71
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.80 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.11. Away attack 0.77 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.17.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Sheffield United v Watford, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 49.1% (25/24), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 26.2% (31/11). Expected home goals 1.61, expected away goals 1.11. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield United v Watford
Home side
Sheffield United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.49
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.22 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.96 for · 0.88 against
30 Oct · Home
Wrexham1–0xG 1.25 for · 0.64 against
24 Oct · Home
Derby County1–1xG 2.99 for · 1.16 against
17 Oct · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 1.41 for · 0.67 against
Away side
Watford
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.86
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.71
- Venue attack rating
- 0.77
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Watford’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.36 for · 1.99 against
3 Nov · Home
Lincoln City1–0xG 0.63 for · 0.77 against
31 Oct · Away
Norwich City2–3xG 1.06 for · 1.08 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.16 for · 1.95 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.85 for · 1.17 against
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.61, Watford 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Watford goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Watford win, per cent
- 26.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Watford’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.36 for · 1.99 against
3 Nov · Home
Lincoln City1–0xG 0.63 for · 0.77 against
31 Oct · Away
Norwich City2–3xG 1.06 for · 1.08 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.16 for · 1.95 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.85 for · 1.17 against
13 Oct · Away
Cardiff City1–5xG 1.43 for · 3.79 against
10 Oct · Home
Burnley0–4xG 0.75 for · 1.94 against
18 Sept · Away
Bristol City0–1xG 0.57 for · 1.47 against
12 Sept · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 0.39 for · 1.50 against
8 Sept · Home
xG 1.44 for · 2.48 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.26 for · 1.14 against
1 Sept · Away
Swansea City0–2xG 0.88 for · 2.71 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.89 against
22 Aug · Away
Wrexham1–1xG 0.65 for · 1.92 against
16 Aug · Home
Southampton2–1xG 0.81 for · 1.71 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Middlesbrough | 0-0 | 0.36 | 1.99 | -0.36 |
| 3 Nov | H | Lincoln City | 1-0 | 0.63 | 0.77 | +0.37 |
| 31 Oct | A | Norwich City | 2-3 | 1.06 | 1.08 | +0.94 |
| 24 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1 | 0.16 | 1.95 | -0.16 |
| 17 Oct | H | Charlton Athletic | 2-0 | 2.85 | 1.17 | -0.85 |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff City | 1-5 | 1.43 | 3.79 | -0.43 |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0-4 | 0.75 | 1.94 | -0.75 |
| 18 Sept | A | Bristol City | 0-1 | 0.57 | 1.47 | -0.57 |
| 12 Sept | H | Stoke City | 1-2 | 0.39 | 1.50 | +0.61 |
| 8 Sept | H | Preston North End | 2-1 | 1.44 | 2.48 | +0.56 |
| 5 Sept | A | West Bromwich Albion | 0-1 | 1.26 | 1.14 | -1.26 |
| 1 Sept | A | Swansea City | 0-2 | 0.88 | 2.71 | -0.88 |
| 29 Aug | H | West Ham United | 1-1 | 1.60 | 0.89 | -0.60 |
| 22 Aug | A | Wrexham | 1-1 | 0.65 | 1.92 | +0.35 |
| 16 Aug | H | Southampton | 2-1 | 0.81 | 1.71 | +1.19 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Sheffield United v Watford
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
26.2%
31/11 (3.82)
The model: Sheffield United v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.61, Watford 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Watford goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Watford win, per cent
- 26.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Watford v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.64 · expected away goals 0.98
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
24.6%
55/18 (4.06)
Away
22.5%
55/16 (4.44)
The model: Watford v Blackburn Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Watford expected goals 1.64, Blackburn Rovers 0.98: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Watford goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Watford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Watford win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
42.4%
15/11 (2.36)
Draw
24.9%
3/1 (4.02)
Away
32.8%
39/19 (3.05)
The model: Derby County v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Derby County expected goals 1.53, Watford 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Derby County goals down, Watford goals across.
| Derby County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Derby County win, per cent
- 42.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.9%
- Watford win, per cent
- 32.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
Draw
24.6%
52/17 (4.06)
Away
44.8%
16/13 (2.23)
The model: Watford v Millwall
The model
What the expected goals say
Watford expected goals 1.27, Millwall 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Watford goals down, Millwall goals across.
| Watford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Watford win, per cent
- 30.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Millwall win, per cent
- 44.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
57.8%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
21.9%
25/7 (4.57)
Away
20.3%
47/12 (4.92)
The model: Birmingham City v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Birmingham City expected goals 1.94, Watford 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Birmingham City goals down, Watford goals across.
| Birmingham City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 57.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.9%
- Watford win, per cent
- 20.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
