Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Birmingham City
1st on points, with 29. 5th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.31 xG for, 20.52 against, goal difference +14.
- Season xGD
- +5.79
- GF minus xG
- +1.69
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.72
- xG per match
- 1.75
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 15 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.75
- xG against / match
- 1.37
- xGD / match
- +0.39
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.96
- xG against / match
- 1.39
- xGD / match
- +0.57
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.83
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- +0.41
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.04 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.03. Away attack 1.23 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.90.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Stoke City v Birmingham City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 33.0% (49/24), draw 27.0% (27/10), away 40.0% (3/2). Expected home goals 1.17, expected away goals 1.31. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Stoke City v Birmingham City
Home side
Stoke City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.91
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.80
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stoke City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Portsmouth2–1xG 0.86 for · 0.51 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.82 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.22 for · 0.10 against
24 Oct · Home
Bristol City0–0xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
17 Oct · Away
Derby County1–0xG 0.59 for · 1.14 against
Away side
Birmingham City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.82
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 1.23
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Birmingham City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Swansea City2–1xG 2.91 for · 1.05 against
3 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 1.35 for · 1.42 against
31 Oct · Away
Lincoln City3–1xG 2.07 for · 1.60 against
24 Oct · Away
Cardiff City0–1xG 1.04 for · 2.97 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.31 for · 0.96 against
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.17, Birmingham City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 33.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 40.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.5 below xG against across 15 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Birmingham City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Swansea City2–1xG 2.91 for · 1.05 against
3 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 1.35 for · 1.42 against
31 Oct · Away
Lincoln City3–1xG 2.07 for · 1.60 against
24 Oct · Away
Cardiff City0–1xG 1.04 for · 2.97 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.31 for · 0.96 against
13 Oct · Home
xG 2.32 for · 0.55 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 2.55 for · 1.05 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.23 for · 2.14 against
12 Sept · Away
Derby County2–1xG 3.17 for · 1.11 against
9 Sept · Away
Norwich City1–2xG 1.63 for · 1.01 against
6 Sept · Home
xG 1.39 for · 2.47 against
1 Sept · Home
Southampton1–1xG 1.55 for · 1.02 against
28 Aug · Away
Wrexham2–1xG 1.52 for · 1.37 against
22 Aug · Home
Bristol City2–2xG 1.50 for · 1.51 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.29 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Swansea City | 2-1 | 2.91 | 1.05 | -0.91 |
| 3 Nov | H | Millwall | 3-0 | 1.35 | 1.42 | +1.65 |
| 31 Oct | A | Lincoln City | 3-1 | 2.07 | 1.60 | +0.93 |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff City | 0-1 | 1.04 | 2.97 | -1.04 |
| 17 Oct | H | Queens Park Rangers | 3-0 | 1.31 | 0.96 | +1.69 |
| 13 Oct | H | Preston North End | 4-0 | 2.32 | 0.55 | +1.68 |
| 10 Oct | A | West Bromwich Albion | 1-0 | 2.55 | 1.05 | -1.55 |
| 19 Sept | H | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 1.23 | 2.14 | +0.77 |
| 12 Sept | A | Derby County | 2-1 | 3.17 | 1.11 | -1.17 |
| 9 Sept | A | Norwich City | 1-2 | 1.63 | 1.01 | -0.63 |
| 6 Sept | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-2 | 1.39 | 2.47 | +0.61 |
| 1 Sept | H | Southampton | 1-1 | 1.55 | 1.02 | -0.55 |
| 28 Aug | A | Wrexham | 2-1 | 1.52 | 1.37 | +0.48 |
| 22 Aug | H | Bristol City | 2-2 | 1.50 | 1.51 | +0.50 |
| 15 Aug | A | Sheffield United | 0-0 | 0.77 | 0.29 | -0.77 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Stoke City v Birmingham City
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Draw
27.0%
27/10 (3.70)
Away
40.0%
3/2 (2.50)
The model: Stoke City v Birmingham City
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.17, Birmingham City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 33.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 40.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 25 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Burnley v Birmingham City
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68
Home
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Draw
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
50.4%
1/1 (1.99)
The model: Burnley v Birmingham City
The model
What the expected goals say
Burnley expected goals 1.13, Birmingham City 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Burnley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Burnley win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 50.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
50.1%
1/1 (2.00)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
The model: Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Birmingham City expected goals 1.86, Bolton Wanderers 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Birmingham City goals down, Bolton Wanderers goals across.
| Birmingham City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 50.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 27.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Charlton Athletic v Birmingham City
Expected home goals 1.04 · expected away goals 1.46
Home
27.0%
46/17 (3.71)
Draw
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
Away
46.7%
8/7 (2.14)
The model: Charlton Athletic v Birmingham City
The model
What the expected goals say
Charlton Athletic expected goals 1.04, Birmingham City 1.46: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Charlton Athletic goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Charlton Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 27.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.3%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 46.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
57.8%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
21.9%
25/7 (4.57)
Away
20.3%
47/12 (4.92)
The model: Birmingham City v Watford
The model
What the expected goals say
Birmingham City expected goals 1.94, Watford 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Birmingham City goals down, Watford goals across.
| Birmingham City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 57.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.9%
- Watford win, per cent
- 20.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
