2026/2027 · matchweek 15 · provider tag opta
Championship xG form
Every league match so far. The fair prices further down the page use these home and away rates, shrunk towards the league, not the last-ten window.
- 1+16.3615 played · +1.09 / match
Middlesbrough: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 2
- xG for / against
- 30.87 / 14.51
- Goals for / against
- 30 / 19
- Goals minus xG
- -0.87
- Home xG for / against
- 2.01 / 1.04 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 2.10 / 0.90 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 2+12.7915 played · +0.85 / match
Wolverhampton Wanderers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 4
- xG for / against
- 26.88 / 14.09
- Goals for / against
- 26 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- -0.88
- Home xG for / against
- 1.94 / 0.76 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.66 / 1.09 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 3West Ham UnitedGoals ahead of xG+11.9515 played · +0.80 / match
West Ham United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 9
- xG for / against
- 30.28 / 18.33
- Goals for / against
- 37 / 23
- Goals minus xG
- +6.72
- Home xG for / against
- 2.21 / 1.00 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.85 / 1.42 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 4+9.0115 played · +0.60 / match
Queens Park Rangers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 8
- xG for / against
- 25.61 / 16.60
- Goals for / against
- 24 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- -1.61
- Home xG for / against
- 2.19 / 0.98 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.16 / 1.25 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 5Birmingham CityConceding fewer than xG+5.7915 played · +0.39 / match
Birmingham City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 1
- xG for / against
- 26.31 / 20.52
- Goals for / against
- 28 / 14
- Goals minus xG
- +1.69
- Home xG for / against
- 1.70 / 1.39 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.82 / 1.34 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 6+5.6215 played · +0.37 / match
Southampton: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 7
- xG for / against
- 26.16 / 20.54
- Goals for / against
- 29 / 15
- Goals minus xG
- +2.84
- Home xG for / against
- 1.97 / 1.32 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.55 / 1.42 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 7+4.9115 played · +0.33 / match
Millwall: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 16
- xG for / against
- 26.87 / 21.96
- Goals for / against
- 23 / 27
- Goals minus xG
- -3.87
- Home xG for / against
- 2.15 / 1.31 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.48 / 1.60 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 8+4.1815 played · +0.28 / match
West Bromwich Albion: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 5
- xG for / against
- 24.91 / 20.73
- Goals for / against
- 23 / 15
- Goals minus xG
- -1.91
- Home xG for / against
- 1.93 / 1.08 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.35 / 1.73 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 9+4.0415 played · +0.27 / match
Cardiff City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 14
- xG for / against
- 30.59 / 26.55
- Goals for / against
- 27 / 27
- Goals minus xG
- -3.59
- Home xG for / against
- 2.72 / 1.59 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.26 / 1.98 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 10+2.9615 played · +0.20 / match
Swansea City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 6
- xG for / against
- 24.02 / 21.06
- Goals for / against
- 22 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- -2.02
- Home xG for / against
- 1.83 / 1.01 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.40 / 1.75 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 11Norwich CityGoals ahead of xG+2.6015 played · +0.17 / match
Norwich City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 12
- xG for / against
- 24.63 / 22.03
- Goals for / against
- 32 / 24
- Goals minus xG
- +7.37
- Home xG for / against
- 1.37 / 1.48 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.88 / 1.46 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 12-0.7815 played · -0.05 / match
Bristol City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 17
- xG for / against
- 21.55 / 22.33
- Goals for / against
- 16 / 24
- Goals minus xG
- -5.55
- Home xG for / against
- 1.17 / 1.59 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.74 / 1.37 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 13-0.9215 played · -0.06 / match
Portsmouth: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 11
- xG for / against
- 17.63 / 18.55
- Goals for / against
- 20 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- +2.37
- Home xG for / against
- 1.41 / 1.30 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.91 / 1.17 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 14-1.3615 played · -0.09 / match
Wrexham: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 15
- xG for / against
- 16.80 / 18.16
- Goals for / against
- 18 / 20
- Goals minus xG
- +1.20
- Home xG for / against
- 1.21 / 1.27 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.01 / 1.14 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 15-1.5215 played · -0.10 / match
Sheffield United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 10
- xG for / against
- 18.75 / 20.27
- Goals for / against
- 21 / 19
- Goals minus xG
- +2.25
- Home xG for / against
- 1.26 / 1.49 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.24 / 1.23 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 16-2.1915 played · -0.15 / match
Lincoln City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 21
- xG for / against
- 19.98 / 22.17
- Goals for / against
- 15 / 26
- Goals minus xG
- -4.98
- Home xG for / against
- 1.70 / 1.54 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.01 / 1.42 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 17Stoke CityGoals ahead of xG-6.2815 played · -0.42 / match
Stoke City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 3
- xG for / against
- 15.69 / 21.97
- Goals for / against
- 24 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- +8.31
- Home xG for / against
- 1.13 / 0.91 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.97 / 1.95 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 18-6.3915 played · -0.43 / match
Preston North End: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 24
- xG for / against
- 18.24 / 24.63
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 30
- Goals minus xG
- -5.24
- Home xG for / against
- 1.29 / 1.58 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.13 / 1.71 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 19-6.7315 played · -0.45 / match
Burnley: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 22
- xG for / against
- 20.14 / 26.87
- Goals for / against
- 22 / 31
- Goals minus xG
- +1.86
- Home xG for / against
- 1.06 / 1.39 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.59 / 2.15 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 20-8.3215 played · -0.55 / match
Charlton Athletic: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 19
- xG for / against
- 14.27 / 22.59
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 23
- Goals minus xG
- -1.27
- Home xG for / against
- 0.93 / 1.10 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.97 / 1.96 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 21-9.3315 played · -0.62 / match
Bolton Wanderers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 18
- xG for / against
- 20.63 / 29.96
- Goals for / against
- 20 / 29
- Goals minus xG
- -0.63
- Home xG for / against
- 1.50 / 2.13 (7 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.26 / 1.88 (8 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 22Blackburn RoversGoals ahead of xG-11.0315 played · -0.74 / match
Blackburn Rovers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 13
- xG for / against
- 15.50 / 26.53
- Goals for / against
- 22 / 23
- Goals minus xG
- +6.50
- Home xG for / against
- 1.40 / 1.28 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.62 / 2.32 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 23-11.6715 played · -0.78 / match
Watford: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 20
- xG for / against
- 14.84 / 26.51
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 23
- Goals minus xG
- -1.84
- Home xG for / against
- 1.10 / 1.56 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.86 / 2.01 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 24-13.6915 played · -0.91 / match
Derby County: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 23
- xG for / against
- 16.16 / 29.85
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 30
- Goals minus xG
- -2.16
- Home xG for / against
- 1.17 / 1.89 (8 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.97 / 2.10 (7 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
| # | Club · form | xGD | xGD / P | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | GF-xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | +16.36 | +1.09 | 2 | 15 | 30.87 | 14.51 | 30 | 19 | -0.87 | 2.01 / 1.04 | 2.10 / 0.90 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | +12.79 | +0.85 | 4 | 15 | 26.88 | 14.09 | 26 | 18 | -0.88 | 1.94 / 0.76 | 1.66 / 1.09 |
| 3 | West Ham UnitedGoals ahead of xG | +11.95 | +0.80 | 9 | 15 | 30.28 | 18.33 | 37 | 23 | +6.72 | 2.21 / 1.00 | 1.85 / 1.42 |
| 4 | Queens Park Rangers | +9.01 | +0.60 | 8 | 15 | 25.61 | 16.60 | 24 | 18 | -1.61 | 2.19 / 0.98 | 1.16 / 1.25 |
| 5 | Birmingham CityConceding fewer than xG | +5.79 | +0.39 | 1 | 15 | 26.31 | 20.52 | 28 | 14 | +1.69 | 1.70 / 1.39 | 1.82 / 1.34 |
| 6 | Southampton | +5.62 | +0.37 | 7 | 15 | 26.16 | 20.54 | 29 | 15 | +2.84 | 1.97 / 1.32 | 1.55 / 1.42 |
| 7 | Millwall | +4.91 | +0.33 | 16 | 15 | 26.87 | 21.96 | 23 | 27 | -3.87 | 2.15 / 1.31 | 1.48 / 1.60 |
| 8 | West Bromwich Albion | +4.18 | +0.28 | 5 | 15 | 24.91 | 20.73 | 23 | 15 | -1.91 | 1.93 / 1.08 | 1.35 / 1.73 |
| 9 | Cardiff City | +4.04 | +0.27 | 14 | 15 | 30.59 | 26.55 | 27 | 27 | -3.59 | 2.72 / 1.59 | 1.26 / 1.98 |
| 10 | Swansea City | +2.96 | +0.20 | 6 | 15 | 24.02 | 21.06 | 22 | 18 | -2.02 | 1.83 / 1.01 | 1.40 / 1.75 |
| 11 | Norwich CityGoals ahead of xG | +2.60 | +0.17 | 12 | 15 | 24.63 | 22.03 | 32 | 24 | +7.37 | 1.37 / 1.48 | 1.88 / 1.46 |
| 12 | Bristol City | -0.78 | -0.05 | 17 | 15 | 21.55 | 22.33 | 16 | 24 | -5.55 | 1.17 / 1.59 | 1.74 / 1.37 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | -0.92 | -0.06 | 11 | 15 | 17.63 | 18.55 | 20 | 18 | +2.37 | 1.41 / 1.30 | 0.91 / 1.17 |
| 14 | Wrexham | -1.36 | -0.09 | 15 | 15 | 16.80 | 18.16 | 18 | 20 | +1.20 | 1.21 / 1.27 | 1.01 / 1.14 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | -1.52 | -0.10 | 10 | 15 | 18.75 | 20.27 | 21 | 19 | +2.25 | 1.26 / 1.49 | 1.24 / 1.23 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | -2.19 | -0.15 | 21 | 15 | 19.98 | 22.17 | 15 | 26 | -4.98 | 1.70 / 1.54 | 1.01 / 1.42 |
| 17 | Stoke CityGoals ahead of xG | -6.28 | -0.42 | 3 | 15 | 15.69 | 21.97 | 24 | 18 | +8.31 | 1.13 / 0.91 | 0.97 / 1.95 |
| 18 | Preston North End | -6.39 | -0.43 | 24 | 15 | 18.24 | 24.63 | 13 | 30 | -5.24 | 1.29 / 1.58 | 1.13 / 1.71 |
| 19 | Burnley | -6.73 | -0.45 | 22 | 15 | 20.14 | 26.87 | 22 | 31 | +1.86 | 1.06 / 1.39 | 1.59 / 2.15 |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | -8.32 | -0.55 | 19 | 15 | 14.27 | 22.59 | 13 | 23 | -1.27 | 0.93 / 1.10 | 0.97 / 1.96 |
| 21 | Bolton Wanderers | -9.33 | -0.62 | 18 | 15 | 20.63 | 29.96 | 20 | 29 | -0.63 | 1.50 / 2.13 | 1.26 / 1.88 |
| 22 | Blackburn RoversGoals ahead of xG | -11.03 | -0.74 | 13 | 15 | 15.50 | 26.53 | 22 | 23 | +6.50 | 1.40 / 1.28 | 0.62 / 2.32 |
| 23 | Watford | -11.67 | -0.78 | 20 | 15 | 14.84 | 26.51 | 13 | 23 | -1.84 | 1.10 / 1.56 | 0.86 / 2.01 |
| 24 | Derby County | -13.69 | -0.91 | 23 | 15 | 16.16 | 29.85 | 14 | 30 | -2.16 | 1.17 / 1.89 | 0.97 / 2.10 |
Sorted by total xG difference in this window. xGD / P is the difference per match; compare it alongside P when clubs have played different numbers of games. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window, oldest first. Pos is the season position on points. Home and away are xG for and against per match. Flags use the season, regardless of the selected window. GF-xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth.
- xGD
- xG for minus xG against. The table is sorted on this total.
- xGD / P
- xG difference per match. Useful when clubs have played different numbers of games.
- Form bars
- The latest matches in this window, oldest first. Above the line is positive xGD; below is negative. All clubs use the same scale.
- Pos
- Season position on points.
- P
- League matches actually played in this window.
- xGF / xGA
- Expected goals for and against.
- GF / GA
- Goals for and against.
- GF-xG
- Goals minus xG. Positive is more goals than the shots were worth.
- Home / Away
- xG for / against per match, at home and away.
- Flags
- Season goals against xG, regardless of the selected window. The Stop Press explains each flag.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Birmingham City
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.5 below xG against across 15 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Stoke City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 8.3 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- West Ham United
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Norwich City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 7.4 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Blackburn Rovers
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.5 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
- Home xG average
- 1.59
- Away xG average
- 1.34
Home sides in the Championship are averaging 1.59 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.34. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.21
Over 2.5 goals 55.1% (13/16) · both teams to score 57.1% (3/4)
Home
48.4%
16/15 (2.07)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
27.5%
50/19 (3.63)
Compare teams & see the workings: Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
Home side
Millwall
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.22
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Millwall’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 0.42 for · 3.14 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.42 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
Derby County4–1xG 3.73 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
Portsmouth1–2xG 0.84 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Home
Lincoln City2–2xG 2.12 for · 1.32 against
Away side
Queens Park Rangers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.25
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.92
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Queens Park Rangers’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Lincoln City2–1xG 1.73 for · 1.52 against
3 Nov · Home
Burnley1–1xG 1.76 for · 0.15 against
31 Oct · Away
Southampton1–4xG 0.76 for · 1.21 against
24 Oct · Home
Swansea City5–0xG 3.90 for · 0.43 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.96 for · 1.31 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.21.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Millwall expected goals 1.68, Queens Park Rangers 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Millwall goals down, Queens Park Rangers goals across.
| Millwall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Millwall win, per cent
- 48.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Queens Park Rangers win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Norwich City v Cardiff City
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 58.9% (16/23) · both teams to score 60.8% (9/14)
Home
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
23.8%
77/24 (4.21)
Away
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
Compare teams & see the workings: Norwich City v Cardiff City
Home side
Norwich City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.37
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.48
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 0.91
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Norwich City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Bristol City5–0xG 2.91 for · 1.51 against
3 Nov · Away
Derby County4–0xG 2.40 for · 0.69 against
31 Oct · Home
Watford3–2xG 1.08 for · 1.06 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.77 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–1xG 0.39 for · 1.23 against
Away side
Cardiff City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.98
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.15
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cardiff City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Burnley5–4xG 4.61 for · 2.38 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.12 for · 2.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.90 for · 1.58 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.97 for · 1.04 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.85 for · 2.76 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.38.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Norwich City expected goals 1.68, Cardiff City 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Norwich City goals down, Cardiff City goals across.
| Norwich City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Norwich City win, per cent
- 44.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 31.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Southampton v Derby County
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09
Over 2.5 goals 64.0% (9/16) · both teams to score 59.1% (9/13)
Home
62.6%
3/5 (1.60)
Draw
19.6%
45/11 (5.09)
Away
17.7%
51/11 (5.64)
Compare teams & see the workings: Southampton v Derby County
Home side
Southampton
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.15
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Southampton’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.88 for · 1.35 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.38 for · 2.46 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 0.76 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.55 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.19 for · 1.53 against
Away side
Derby County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.10
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.04
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.20
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Derby County’s side.
6 Nov · Home
xG 2.07 for · 1.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–4xG 0.69 for · 2.40 against
31 Oct · Away
Millwall1–4xG 1.25 for · 3.73 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.16 for · 2.99 against
17 Oct · Home
Stoke City0–1xG 1.14 for · 0.59 against
Expected home goals 2.21 · expected away goals 1.09.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Southampton expected goals 2.21, Derby County 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Southampton goals down, Derby County goals across.
| Southampton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Southampton win, per cent
- 62.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Derby County win, per cent
- 17.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47
Over 2.5 goals 51.6% (15/16) · both teams to score 55.4% (4/5)
Home
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
41.7%
7/5 (2.40)
Compare teams & see the workings: Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Home side
Bolton Wanderers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.50
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.13
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.38
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bolton Wanderers’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Derby County1–3xG 1.86 for · 2.07 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.78 for · 0.79 against
31 Oct · Home
Bristol City2–3xG 1.38 for · 3.33 against
23 Oct · Home
xG 0.97 for · 4.38 against
17 Oct · Away
Southampton0–0xG 1.53 for · 2.19 against
Away side
Portsmouth
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.91
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.17
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Portsmouth’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 0.51 for · 0.86 against
3 Nov · Home
Swansea City3–1xG 1.35 for · 2.25 against
31 Oct · Away
Burnley0–0xG 0.25 for · 1.89 against
24 Oct · Home
Millwall2–1xG 0.75 for · 0.84 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.73 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.47.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bolton Wanderers expected goals 1.27, Portsmouth 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bolton Wanderers goals down, Portsmouth goals across.
| Bolton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bolton Wanderers win, per cent
- 32.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Portsmouth win, per cent
- 41.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Lincoln City v Wrexham
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.24
Over 2.5 goals 48.2% (14/13) · both teams to score 52.8% (17/19)
Home
39.6%
32/21 (2.52)
Draw
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
Away
34.1%
31/16 (2.94)
Compare teams & see the workings: Lincoln City v Wrexham
Home side
Lincoln City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.70
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 1.10
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Lincoln City’s side.
Away side
Wrexham
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.14
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.85
- Venue defence rating
- 0.82
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wrexham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.17 for · 1.72 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.44 for · 0.89 against
30 Oct · Away
xG 0.64 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.60 for · 1.37 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.24.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Lincoln City expected goals 1.36, Wrexham 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Lincoln City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Lincoln City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 39.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.3%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Bristol City
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.37
Over 2.5 goals 59.0% (16/23) · both teams to score 60.8% (11/17)
Home
45.2%
17/14 (2.21)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
31.1%
31/14 (3.21)
Compare teams & see the workings: Middlesbrough v Bristol City
Home side
Middlesbrough
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.60
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Middlesbrough’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Watford0–0xG 1.99 for · 0.36 against
4 Nov · Away
Wrexham0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.44 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.71 for · 0.40 against
23 Oct · Away
xG 4.38 for · 0.97 against
17 Oct · Home
Cardiff City2–2xG 2.76 for · 0.85 against
Away side
Bristol City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.74
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.37
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.91
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–5xG 1.51 for · 2.91 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 0.99 for · 2.35 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 3.33 for · 1.38 against
24 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–0xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 0.67 for · 1.41 against
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.37.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 1.69, Bristol City 1.37: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Bristol City goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 45.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 31.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Sheffield United v Watford
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11
Over 2.5 goals 51.2% (21/22) · both teams to score 53.7% (19/22)
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
26.2%
31/11 (3.82)
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield United v Watford
Home side
Sheffield United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.49
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.22 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.96 for · 0.88 against
30 Oct · Home
Wrexham1–0xG 1.25 for · 0.64 against
24 Oct · Home
Derby County1–1xG 2.99 for · 1.16 against
17 Oct · Away
Bristol City1–0xG 1.41 for · 0.67 against
Away side
Watford
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.86
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.71
- Venue attack rating
- 0.77
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Watford’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.36 for · 1.99 against
3 Nov · Home
Lincoln City1–0xG 0.63 for · 0.77 against
31 Oct · Away
Norwich City2–3xG 1.06 for · 1.08 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.16 for · 1.95 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.85 for · 1.17 against
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield United expected goals 1.61, Watford 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield United goals down, Watford goals across.
| Sheffield United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield United win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Watford win, per cent
- 26.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Stoke City v Birmingham City
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31
Over 2.5 goals 45.2% (17/14) · both teams to score 50.4% (1/1)
Home
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Draw
27.0%
27/10 (3.70)
Away
40.0%
3/2 (2.50)
Compare teams & see the workings: Stoke City v Birmingham City
Home side
Stoke City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.91
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.80
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stoke City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Portsmouth2–1xG 0.86 for · 0.51 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.82 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.22 for · 0.10 against
24 Oct · Home
Bristol City0–0xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
17 Oct · Away
Derby County1–0xG 0.59 for · 1.14 against
Away side
Birmingham City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.82
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.41
- Venue attack rating
- 1.23
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Birmingham City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Swansea City2–1xG 2.91 for · 1.05 against
3 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 1.35 for · 1.42 against
31 Oct · Away
Lincoln City3–1xG 2.07 for · 1.60 against
24 Oct · Away
Cardiff City0–1xG 1.04 for · 2.97 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.31 for · 0.96 against
Expected home goals 1.17 · expected away goals 1.31.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stoke City expected goals 1.17, Birmingham City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stoke City goals down, Birmingham City goals across.
| Stoke City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stoke City win, per cent
- 33.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Birmingham City win, per cent
- 40.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14
Over 2.5 goals 57.3% (3/4) · both teams to score 57.2% (3/4)
Home
53.7%
19/22 (1.86)
Draw
22.8%
44/13 (4.38)
Away
23.5%
75/23 (4.26)
Compare teams & see the workings: Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Home side
Swansea City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swansea City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.91 against
3 Nov · Away
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.25 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.78 for · 0.53 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.43 for · 3.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 1.15 against
Away side
West Bromwich Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.73
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.57
- Venue attack rating
- 1.01
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from West Bromwich Albion’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Millwall3–0xG 3.14 for · 0.42 against
3 Nov · Home
Southampton1–1xG 2.46 for · 1.38 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.06 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 2.62 for · 2.16 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 4.19 for · 0.84 against
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 1.14.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swansea City expected goals 1.84, West Bromwich Albion 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swansea City goals down, West Bromwich Albion goals across.
| Swansea City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 53.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- West Bromwich Albion win, per cent
- 23.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
West Ham United v Preston North End
Expected home goals 2.08 · expected away goals 1.01
Over 2.5 goals 59.8% (2/3) · both teams to score 55.7% (19/24)
Home
61.9%
8/13 (1.61)
Draw
20.5%
66/17 (4.88)
Away
17.6%
103/22 (5.68)
Compare teams & see the workings: West Ham United v Preston North End
Home side
West Ham United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.00
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.65
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from West Ham United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.34 for · 0.88 against
4 Nov · Away
Cardiff City3–3xG 2.78 for · 1.12 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.90 for · 2.06 against
24 Oct · Home
Southampton2–3xG 1.51 for · 1.55 against
17 Oct · Away
Swansea City1–0xG 1.15 for · 1.05 against
Away side
Preston North End
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.71
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Preston North End’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Southampton1–0xG 1.35 for · 1.88 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–2xG 0.10 for · 2.22 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.16 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
Wrexham1–4xG 0.87 for · 1.61 against
Expected home goals 2.08 · expected away goals 1.01.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
West Ham United expected goals 2.08, Preston North End 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. West Ham United goals down, Preston North End goals across.
| West Ham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- West Ham United win, per cent
- 61.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.5%
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 17.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
Expected home goals 2.09 · expected away goals 0.80
Over 2.5 goals 55.1% (13/16) · both teams to score 48.3% (15/14)
Home
67.1%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
19.6%
41/10 (5.10)
Away
13.3%
13/2 (7.51)
Compare teams & see the workings: Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
Home side
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.94
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.76
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.92
- Venue attack rating
- 1.14
- Venue defence rating
- 0.73
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wolverhampton Wanderers’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Wrexham1–1xG 1.72 for · 1.17 against
4 Nov · Away
Bristol City2–1xG 2.35 for · 0.99 against
31 Oct · Home
Cardiff City3–0xG 1.58 for · 0.90 against
24 Oct · Home
Watford1–0xG 1.95 for · 0.16 against
20 Oct · Home
Portsmouth1–1xG 0.87 for · 0.73 against
Away side
Charlton Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.97
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.42
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 1.15
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Charlton Athletic’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.22 for · 1.00 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.79 for · 0.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.40 for · 1.71 against
24 Oct · Home
Norwich City1–3xG 0.68 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Away
Watford0–2xG 1.17 for · 2.85 against
Expected home goals 2.09 · expected away goals 0.80.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals 2.09, Charlton Athletic 0.80: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wolverhampton Wanderers goals down, Charlton Athletic goals across.
| Wolverhampton Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win, per cent
- 67.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.6%
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 13.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 12:00
Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90
Over 2.5 goals 46.1% (7/6) · both teams to score 47.6% (11/10)
Home
54.3%
16/19 (1.84)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.03)
Away
20.9%
53/14 (4.78)
Compare teams & see the workings: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
Home side
Burnley
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.06
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.39
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.69
- Venue attack rating
- 0.79
- Venue defence rating
- 1.02
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burnley’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Cardiff City4–5xG 2.38 for · 4.61 against
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.15 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Home
Portsmouth0–0xG 1.89 for · 0.25 against
24 Oct · Away
Lincoln City1–4xG 2.46 for · 2.13 against
16 Oct · Home
xG 1.03 for · 2.00 against
Away side
Blackburn Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.26
- Venue attack rating
- 0.66
- Venue defence rating
- 1.29
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Blackburn Rovers’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.34 against
3 Nov · Home
Stoke City1–2xG 1.82 for · 1.22 against
31 Oct · Away
Swansea City0–4xG 0.53 for · 2.78 against
24 Oct · Home
Wrexham2–0xG 1.37 for · 1.60 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.84 for · 4.19 against
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 0.90.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Burnley expected goals 1.62, Blackburn Rovers 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burnley goals down, Blackburn Rovers goals across.
| Burnley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Burnley win, per cent
- 54.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.8%
- Blackburn Rovers win, per cent
- 20.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Bristol City v Wrexham
Expected home goals 1.07 · expected away goals 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 41.7% (7/5) · both teams to score 47.4% (21/19)
Home
31.1%
42/19 (3.21)
Draw
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
Away
41.0%
23/16 (2.44)
Compare teams & see the workings: Bristol City v Wrexham
Home side
Bristol City
- Season home matches
- 8
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.17
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.59
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.13
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Norwich City0–5xG 1.51 for · 2.91 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 0.99 for · 2.35 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 3.33 for · 1.38 against
24 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–0xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 0.67 for · 1.41 against
Away side
Wrexham
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.14
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.05
- Venue attack rating
- 0.85
- Venue defence rating
- 0.82
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wrexham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.17 for · 1.72 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.44 for · 0.89 against
30 Oct · Away
xG 0.64 for · 1.25 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.60 for · 1.37 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.87 against
Expected home goals 1.07 · expected away goals 1.28.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol City expected goals 1.07, Wrexham 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol City goals down, Wrexham goals across.
| Bristol City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bristol City win, per cent
- 31.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.8%
- Wrexham win, per cent
- 41.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 41.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Cardiff City v Preston North End
Expected home goals 2.45 · expected away goals 1.36
Over 2.5 goals 73.3% (4/11) · both teams to score 67.9% (9/19)
Home
61.5%
5/8 (1.63)
Draw
18.5%
101/23 (5.39)
Away
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
Compare teams & see the workings: Cardiff City v Preston North End
Home side
Cardiff City
- Season home matches
- 8
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.72
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.59
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 1.47
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cardiff City’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Burnley5–4xG 4.61 for · 2.38 against
4 Nov · Home
xG 1.12 for · 2.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.90 for · 1.58 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.97 for · 1.04 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.85 for · 2.76 against
Away side
Preston North End
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.71
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Preston North End’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Southampton1–0xG 1.35 for · 1.88 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Away
Stoke City0–2xG 0.10 for · 2.22 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.16 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
Wrexham1–4xG 0.87 for · 1.61 against
Expected home goals 2.45 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Cardiff City expected goals 2.45, Preston North End 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cardiff City goals down, Preston North End goals across.
| Cardiff City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cardiff City win, per cent
- 61.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 18.5%
- Preston North End win, per cent
- 20.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 73.3%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
Expected home goals 1.07 · expected away goals 0.99
Over 2.5 goals 34.0% (33/17) · both teams to score 41.3% (27/19)
Home
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
Draw
30.3%
53/23 (3.31)
Away
32.7%
37/18 (3.06)
Compare teams & see the workings: Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
Home side
Charlton Athletic
- Season home matches
- 8
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.93
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.10
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.42
- Venue attack rating
- 0.72
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Charlton Athletic’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.22 for · 1.00 against
3 Nov · Home
xG 0.79 for · 0.78 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.40 for · 1.71 against
24 Oct · Home
Norwich City1–3xG 0.68 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Away
Watford0–2xG 1.17 for · 2.85 against
Away side
Lincoln City
- Season away matches
- 8
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.42
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.84
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Lincoln City’s side.
Expected home goals 1.07 · expected away goals 0.99.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Charlton Athletic expected goals 1.07, Lincoln City 0.99: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Charlton Athletic goals down, Lincoln City goals across.
| Charlton Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Charlton Athletic win, per cent
- 37.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 30.3%
- Lincoln City win, per cent
- 32.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 12.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 34.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Middlesbrough v Swansea City
Expected home goals 1.97 · expected away goals 1.18
Over 2.5 goals 61.1% (7/11) · both teams to score 59.7% (15/22)
Home
55.8%
19/24 (1.79)
Draw
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
Compare teams & see the workings: Middlesbrough v Swansea City
Home side
Middlesbrough
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.60
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Middlesbrough’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Watford0–0xG 1.99 for · 0.36 against
4 Nov · Away
Wrexham0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.44 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.71 for · 0.40 against
23 Oct · Away
xG 4.38 for · 0.97 against
17 Oct · Home
Cardiff City2–2xG 2.76 for · 0.85 against
Away side
Swansea City
- Season away matches
- 8
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.40
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.75
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.25
- Venue attack rating
- 1.03
- Venue defence rating
- 1.06
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swansea City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.05 for · 2.91 against
3 Nov · Away
Portsmouth1–3xG 2.25 for · 1.35 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.78 for · 0.53 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.43 for · 3.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.05 for · 1.15 against
Expected home goals 1.97 · expected away goals 1.18.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Middlesbrough expected goals 1.97, Swansea City 1.18: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Middlesbrough goals down, Swansea City goals across.
| Middlesbrough goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Middlesbrough win, per cent
- 55.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.7%
- Swansea City win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
