2026/2027 · matchweek 14 · provider tag opta
League Two xG form
Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.
- 1+5.916 played · +0.98 / match
Accrington Stanley: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 9
- xG for / against
- 9.50 / 3.59
- Goals for / against
- 12 / 3
- Goals minus xG
- +2.50
- Home xG for / against
- 1.88 / 0.51 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.29 / 0.69 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 2+5.266 played · +0.88 / match
Chesterfield: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 10
- xG for / against
- 10.68 / 5.42
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- +2.32
- Home xG for / against
- 2.48 / 0.70 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.08 / 1.10 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 3+4.236 played · +0.71 / match
Barnet: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 2
- xG for / against
- 12.32 / 8.09
- Goals for / against
- 11 / 8
- Goals minus xG
- -1.32
- Home xG for / against
- 2.41 / 1.41 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.69 / 1.29 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 4Grimsby TownGoals behind xG+3.386 played · +0.56 / match
Grimsby Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 6
- xG for / against
- 13.02 / 9.64
- Goals for / against
- 12 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -1.02
- Home xG for / against
- 2.28 / 1.18 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 2.06 / 2.03 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 5Port ValeGoals behind xG+3.326 played · +0.55 / match
Port Vale: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 19
- xG for / against
- 8.98 / 5.66
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 7
- Goals minus xG
- -1.98
- Home xG for / against
- 2.27 / 0.62 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.73 / 1.27 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 6Salford CityGoals ahead of xG+2.846 played · +0.47 / match
Salford City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 1
- xG for / against
- 8.70 / 5.86
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 5
- Goals minus xG
- +4.30
- Home xG for / against
- 1.51 / 0.66 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.39 / 1.30 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 7+2.146 played · +0.36 / match
Newport County: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 14
- xG for / against
- 9.05 / 6.91
- Goals for / against
- 8 / 5
- Goals minus xG
- -1.05
- Home xG for / against
- 1.36 / 1.16 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.66 / 1.14 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 8Exeter CityConceding fewer than xG+1.826 played · +0.30 / match
Exeter City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 12
- xG for / against
- 7.44 / 5.62
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 3
- Goals minus xG
- -0.44
- Home xG for / against
- 1.71 / 0.80 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.77 / 1.08 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 9+1.776 played · +0.30 / match
Fleetwood Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 16
- xG for / against
- 10.31 / 8.54
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- -1.31
- Home xG for / against
- 2.21 / 0.79 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.23 / 2.06 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 10+1.316 played · +0.22 / match
Shrewsbury Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 15
- xG for / against
- 9.92 / 8.61
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- +0.08
- Home xG for / against
- 1.55 / 1.26 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.76 / 1.61 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 11+0.696 played · +0.11 / match
Crewe Alexandra: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 4
- xG for / against
- 7.22 / 6.53
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- +1.78
- Home xG for / against
- 1.34 / 0.69 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.07 / 1.48 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 12Oldham AthleticGoals behind xG-0.106 played · -0.02 / match
Oldham Athletic: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 18
- xG for / against
- 8.84 / 8.94
- Goals for / against
- 6 / 6
- Goals minus xG
- -2.84
- Home xG for / against
- 1.33 / 1.25 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.62 / 1.73 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 13WalsallConceding fewer than xG-0.516 played · -0.08 / match
Walsall: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 3
- xG for / against
- 11.46 / 11.97
- Goals for / against
- 11 / 8
- Goals minus xG
- -0.46
- Home xG for / against
- 2.33 / 1.96 (2 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.70 / 2.02 (4 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 14-1.236 played · -0.20 / match
York City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 7
- xG for / against
- 7.31 / 8.54
- Goals for / against
- 8 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- +0.69
- Home xG for / against
- 1.62 / 0.98 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.82 / 1.87 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 15-1.806 played · -0.30 / match
Northampton Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 21
- xG for / against
- 7.37 / 9.17
- Goals for / against
- 6 / 4
- Goals minus xG
- -1.37
- Home xG for / against
- 1.24 / 0.88 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.22 / 2.17 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 16-1.836 played · -0.31 / match
Gillingham: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 8
- xG for / against
- 7.72 / 9.55
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- +1.28
- Home xG for / against
- 1.10 / 1.60 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.47 / 1.58 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 17-2.066 played · -0.34 / match
Colchester United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 23
- xG for / against
- 7.54 / 9.60
- Goals for / against
- 4 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- -3.54
- Home xG for / against
- 1.75 / 1.75 (2 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.01 / 1.53 (4 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 18Swindon TownConceding fewer than xG-3.296 played · -0.55 / match
Swindon Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 13
- xG for / against
- 7.53 / 10.82
- Goals for / against
- 6 / 5
- Goals minus xG
- -1.53
- Home xG for / against
- 1.20 / 1.30 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.31 / 2.31 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 19-3.686 played · -0.61 / match
Tranmere Rovers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 11
- xG for / against
- 6.17 / 9.85
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- +2.83
- Home xG for / against
- 1.27 / 1.33 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.79 / 1.95 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 20-3.966 played · -0.66 / match
Cheltenham Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 5
- xG for / against
- 6.64 / 10.60
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 13
- Goals minus xG
- +0.36
- Home xG for / against
- 1.61 / 1.57 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.60 / 1.96 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 21-4.146 played · -0.69 / match
Rotherham United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 22
- xG for / against
- 6.67 / 10.81
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 14
- Goals minus xG
- +0.33
- Home xG for / against
- 1.53 / 1.96 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.69 / 1.64 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 22-4.156 played · -0.69 / match
Bristol Rovers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 17
- xG for / against
- 6.57 / 10.72
- Goals for / against
- 4 / 12
- Goals minus xG
- -2.57
- Home xG for / against
- 1.68 / 1.43 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.51 / 2.15 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 23-4.916 played · -0.82 / match
Crawley Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 24
- xG for / against
- 8.01 / 12.92
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -1.01
- Home xG for / against
- 1.40 / 1.71 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.27 / 2.60 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 24-6.366 played · -1.06 / match
Rochdale: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 20
- xG for / against
- 6.52 / 12.88
- Goals for / against
- 8 / 15
- Goals minus xG
- +1.48
- Home xG for / against
- 1.25 / 2.05 (3 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.92 / 2.24 (3 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
| # | Club · form | xGD | xGD / P | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | GF-xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | +5.91 | +0.98 | 9 | 6 | 9.50 | 3.59 | 12 | 3 | +2.50 | 1.88 / 0.51 | 1.29 / 0.69 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | +5.26 | +0.88 | 10 | 6 | 10.68 | 5.42 | 13 | 11 | +2.32 | 2.48 / 0.70 | 1.08 / 1.10 |
| 3 | Barnet | +4.23 | +0.71 | 2 | 6 | 12.32 | 8.09 | 11 | 8 | -1.32 | 2.41 / 1.41 | 1.69 / 1.29 |
| 4 | Grimsby TownGoals behind xG | +3.38 | +0.56 | 6 | 6 | 13.02 | 9.64 | 12 | 10 | -1.02 | 2.28 / 1.18 | 2.06 / 2.03 |
| 5 | Port ValeGoals behind xG | +3.32 | +0.55 | 19 | 6 | 8.98 | 5.66 | 7 | 7 | -1.98 | 2.27 / 0.62 | 0.73 / 1.27 |
| 6 | Salford CityGoals ahead of xG | +2.84 | +0.47 | 1 | 6 | 8.70 | 5.86 | 13 | 5 | +4.30 | 1.51 / 0.66 | 1.39 / 1.30 |
| 7 | Newport County | +2.14 | +0.36 | 14 | 6 | 9.05 | 6.91 | 8 | 5 | -1.05 | 1.36 / 1.16 | 1.66 / 1.14 |
| 8 | Exeter CityConceding fewer than xG | +1.82 | +0.30 | 12 | 6 | 7.44 | 5.62 | 7 | 3 | -0.44 | 1.71 / 0.80 | 0.77 / 1.08 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | +1.77 | +0.30 | 16 | 6 | 10.31 | 8.54 | 9 | 9 | -1.31 | 2.21 / 0.79 | 1.23 / 2.06 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury Town | +1.31 | +0.22 | 15 | 6 | 9.92 | 8.61 | 10 | 9 | +0.08 | 1.55 / 1.26 | 1.76 / 1.61 |
| 11 | Crewe Alexandra | +0.69 | +0.11 | 4 | 6 | 7.22 | 6.53 | 9 | 11 | +1.78 | 1.34 / 0.69 | 1.07 / 1.48 |
| 12 | Oldham AthleticGoals behind xG | -0.10 | -0.02 | 18 | 6 | 8.84 | 8.94 | 6 | 6 | -2.84 | 1.33 / 1.25 | 1.62 / 1.73 |
| 13 | WalsallConceding fewer than xG | -0.51 | -0.08 | 3 | 6 | 11.46 | 11.97 | 11 | 8 | -0.46 | 2.33 / 1.96 | 1.70 / 2.02 |
| 14 | York City | -1.23 | -0.20 | 7 | 6 | 7.31 | 8.54 | 8 | 11 | +0.69 | 1.62 / 0.98 | 0.82 / 1.87 |
| 15 | Northampton Town | -1.80 | -0.30 | 21 | 6 | 7.37 | 9.17 | 6 | 4 | -1.37 | 1.24 / 0.88 | 1.22 / 2.17 |
| 16 | Gillingham | -1.83 | -0.31 | 8 | 6 | 7.72 | 9.55 | 9 | 10 | +1.28 | 1.10 / 1.60 | 1.47 / 1.58 |
| 17 | Colchester United | -2.06 | -0.34 | 23 | 6 | 7.54 | 9.60 | 4 | 9 | -3.54 | 1.75 / 1.75 | 1.01 / 1.53 |
| 18 | Swindon TownConceding fewer than xG | -3.29 | -0.55 | 13 | 6 | 7.53 | 10.82 | 6 | 5 | -1.53 | 1.20 / 1.30 | 1.31 / 2.31 |
| 19 | Tranmere Rovers | -3.68 | -0.61 | 11 | 6 | 6.17 | 9.85 | 9 | 9 | +2.83 | 1.27 / 1.33 | 0.79 / 1.95 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | -3.96 | -0.66 | 5 | 6 | 6.64 | 10.60 | 7 | 13 | +0.36 | 1.61 / 1.57 | 0.60 / 1.96 |
| 21 | Rotherham United | -4.14 | -0.69 | 22 | 6 | 6.67 | 10.81 | 7 | 14 | +0.33 | 1.53 / 1.96 | 0.69 / 1.64 |
| 22 | Bristol Rovers | -4.15 | -0.69 | 17 | 6 | 6.57 | 10.72 | 4 | 12 | -2.57 | 1.68 / 1.43 | 0.51 / 2.15 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | -4.91 | -0.82 | 24 | 6 | 8.01 | 12.92 | 7 | 10 | -1.01 | 1.40 / 1.71 | 1.27 / 2.60 |
| 24 | Rochdale | -6.36 | -1.06 | 20 | 6 | 6.52 | 12.88 | 8 | 15 | +1.48 | 1.25 / 2.05 | 0.92 / 2.24 |
Sorted by total xG difference in this window. xGD / P is the difference per match; compare it alongside P when clubs have played different numbers of games. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window, oldest first. Pos is the season position on points. Home and away are xG for and against per match. Flags use the season, regardless of the selected window. GF-xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth.
- xGD
- xG for minus xG against. The table is sorted on this total.
- xGD / P
- xG difference per match. Useful when clubs have played different numbers of games.
- Form bars
- The latest matches in this window, oldest first. Above the line is positive xGD; below is negative. All clubs use the same scale.
- Pos
- Season position on points.
- P
- League matches actually played in this window.
- xGF / xGA
- Expected goals for and against.
- GF / GA
- Goals for and against.
- GF-xG
- Goals minus xG. Positive is more goals than the shots were worth.
- Home / Away
- xG for / against per match, at home and away.
- Flags
- Season goals against xG, regardless of the selected window. The Stop Press explains each flag.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Salford City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.9 ahead of xG across 14 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Walsall
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 8.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Grimsby Town
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.1 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Exeter City
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.2 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Swindon Town
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.3 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Oldham Athletic
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Port Vale
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.0 behind xG across 12 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
- Home xG average
- 1.60
- Away xG average
- 1.22
Home sides in the League Two are averaging 1.60 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.22. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30
Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90
Over 2.5 goals 45.0% (11/9) · both teams to score 47.1% (9/8)
Home
53.1%
15/17 (1.88)
Draw
25.3%
62/21 (3.95)
Away
21.6%
40/11 (4.64)
Compare teams & see the workings: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Home side
Exeter City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.53
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 0.76
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Exeter City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.74 for · 0.73 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.11 for · 0.99 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.83 for · 0.93 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.36 for · 1.33 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.17 against
Away side
Cheltenham Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.63
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.01
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cheltenham Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.58 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.52 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 3.03 for · 2.08 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.30 against
10 Oct · Home
Salford City0–2xG 0.25 for · 1.11 against
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.57, Cheltenham Town 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 53.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.32
Over 2.5 goals 57.5% (17/23) · both teams to score 59.6% (15/22)
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
Compare teams & see the workings: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
Home side
Bristol Rovers
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.13
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.69
- Venue attack rating
- 1.21
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.19 for · 3.19 against
24 Oct · Home
Swindon Town0–0xG 1.51 for · 1.50 against
20 Oct · Home
Salford City1–2xG 1.51 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 1.65 against
10 Oct · Home
Barnet1–3xG 2.03 for · 2.10 against
Away side
Chesterfield
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.64
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.25
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.88
- Venue attack rating
- 1.22
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chesterfield’s side.
30 Oct · Away
xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.98 for · 0.67 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.34 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.35 for · 0.27 against
10 Oct · Away
Crawley Town2–2xG 1.58 for · 1.74 against
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.32.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol Rovers expected goals 1.67, Chesterfield 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol Rovers goals down, Chesterfield goals across.
| Bristol Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 30.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Colchester United v Gillingham
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.14
Over 2.5 goals 50.2% (1/1) · both teams to score 53.5% (20/23)
Home
46.3%
22/19 (2.16)
Draw
25.3%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Compare teams & see the workings: Colchester United v Gillingham
Home side
Colchester United
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.53
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.12
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.34
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Colchester United’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Walsall1–3xG 2.17 for · 3.14 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
20 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–1xG 0.92 for · 2.34 against
17 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–0xG 1.33 for · 0.36 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 1.60 against
Away side
Gillingham
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.19
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.31
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Gillingham’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.03 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–4xG 1.15 for · 2.83 against
20 Oct · Home
Port Vale1–1xG 1.88 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.52 for · 1.54 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 1.38 against
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.14.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Colchester United expected goals 1.54, Gillingham 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Colchester United goals down, Gillingham goals across.
| Colchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 46.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 28.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15
Over 2.5 goals 43.9% (23/18) · both teams to score 49.4% (25/24)
Home
39.7%
35/23 (2.52)
Draw
27.4%
61/23 (3.66)
Away
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Compare teams & see the workings: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Home side
Crewe Alexandra
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.11
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crewe Alexandra’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Barnet1–1xG 0.72 for · 0.54 against
24 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–5xG 0.67 for · 1.98 against
20 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–2xG 0.93 for · 1.83 against
17 Oct · Home
Rochdale3–2xG 1.69 for · 0.75 against
10 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.61 for · 0.64 against
Away side
Newport County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.99
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.36
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newport County’s side.
30 Oct · Home
Chesterfield4–1xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.56 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.23 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
York City1–1xG 1.18 for · 1.57 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.61 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.29, Newport County 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 39.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.4%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 33.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.95
Over 2.5 goals 51.0% (23/24) · both teams to score 50.8% (23/24)
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
23.4%
59/18 (4.28)
Away
20.1%
95/24 (4.97)
Compare teams & see the workings: Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
Home side
Port Vale
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.93
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.71
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 0.75
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Port Vale’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Rochdale4–2xG 3.35 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Away
York City0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.06 against
20 Oct · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.75 for · 1.88 against
17 Oct · Home
Chesterfield1–0xG 0.27 for · 0.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–0xG 3.18 for · 0.45 against
Away side
Accrington Stanley
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.29
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.55
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.98
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Accrington Stanley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.50 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Away
Rochdale5–0xG 2.19 for · 0.34 against
20 Oct · Away
York City1–1xG 1.07 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Home
Gillingham3–1xG 1.54 for · 0.52 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 0.23 against
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.95.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.76, Accrington Stanley 0.95: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Accrington Stanley goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 20.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Rochdale v York City
Expected home goals 1.15 · expected away goals 1.96
Over 2.5 goals 60.1% (2/3) · both teams to score 58.7% (7/10)
Home
22.0%
85/24 (4.54)
Draw
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
Away
56.2%
18/23 (1.78)
Compare teams & see the workings: Rochdale v York City
Home side
Rochdale
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.89
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.03
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.06
- Venue attack rating
- 0.72
- Venue defence rating
- 1.42
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Rochdale’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Port Vale2–4xG 1.05 for · 3.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.34 for · 2.19 against
20 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town2–2xG 1.77 for · 2.89 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.75 for · 1.69 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.97 for · 1.68 against
Away side
York City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.47
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.60
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.20
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from York City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–5xG 0.41 for · 2.58 against
27 Oct · Away
Barnet1–3xG 0.47 for · 1.84 against
24 Oct · Home
Port Vale2–0xG 1.06 for · 0.89 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.49 for · 1.07 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.57 for · 1.18 against
Expected home goals 1.15 · expected away goals 1.96.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Rochdale expected goals 1.15, York City 1.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rochdale goals down, York City goals across.
| Rochdale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- York City win, per cent
- 56.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Salford City v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86
Over 2.5 goals 37.0% (17/10) · both teams to score 42.1% (11/8)
Home
47.3%
10/9 (2.11)
Draw
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Away
24.3%
59/19 (4.11)
Compare teams & see the workings: Salford City v Northampton Town
Home side
Salford City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.27
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.92
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.47
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Salford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Exeter City2–1xG 0.73 for · 0.74 against
26 Oct · Away
Walsall4–2xG 2.39 for · 2.13 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Crawley Town2–1xG 1.75 for · 0.61 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.11 for · 0.25 against
Away side
Northampton Town
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Northampton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.03 for · 0.94 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.67 for · 1.50 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.91 for · 0.66 against
17 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–0xG 2.00 for · 2.71 against
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.32, Northampton Town 0.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 47.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.3%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 37.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36
Over 2.5 goals 52.0% (12/13) · both teams to score 56.0% (11/14)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Away
36.4%
40/23 (2.74)
Compare teams & see the workings: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Home side
Shrewsbury Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.34
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.11
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.22
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 0.94
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Shrewsbury Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–2xG 1.83 for · 2.03 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.79 for · 1.62 against
20 Oct · Away
Crawley Town3–2xG 2.35 for · 1.64 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 0.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–1xG 1.17 for · 1.22 against
Away side
Oldham Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oldham Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.94 for · 1.03 against
31 Oct · Home
Crawley Town0–1xG 1.46 for · 2.26 against
24 Oct · Away
Barnet1–1xG 2.39 for · 1.63 against
20 Oct · Away
Walsall0–3xG 1.52 for · 2.53 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.30 for · 0.88 against
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.40, Oldham Athletic 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67
Over 2.5 goals 65.3% (9/17) · both teams to score 66.2% (1/2)
Home
39.1%
14/9 (2.56)
Draw
22.8%
61/18 (4.39)
Away
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Compare teams & see the workings: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Home side
Swindon Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.29
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 1.04
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swindon Town’s side.
Away side
Grimsby Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.84
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.78
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.32
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Grimsby Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
York City5–2xG 2.58 for · 0.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Gillingham4–1xG 2.83 for · 1.15 against
20 Oct · Away
Rochdale2–2xG 2.89 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.71 for · 2.00 against
10 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.45 for · 3.18 against
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.69, Grimsby Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 39.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 17:30
Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89
Over 2.5 goals 44.2% (29/23) · both teams to score 46.6% (23/20)
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
25.5%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
Compare teams & see the workings: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Home side
Fleetwood Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.56
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Fleetwood Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.19 for · 0.19 against
24 Oct · Away
Exeter City1–2xG 0.99 for · 1.11 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.08 for · 3.03 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.86 for · 1.28 against
10 Oct · Home
Walsall1–1xG 1.57 for · 0.89 against
Away side
Tranmere Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.56
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.61
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tranmere Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.00 for · 0.58 against
24 Oct · Away
Crawley Town1–1xG 1.19 for · 0.82 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.91 against
17 Oct · Home
Barnet1–2xG 1.12 for · 2.44 against
10 Oct · Home
Rochdale1–1xG 1.68 for · 0.97 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.55, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.26
Over 2.5 goals 44.9% (27/22) · both teams to score 50.3% (1/1)
Home
35.4%
42/23 (2.83)
Draw
27.2%
59/22 (3.68)
Away
37.4%
5/3 (2.67)
Compare teams & see the workings: Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Home side
Gillingham
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.36
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.43
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.31
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.11
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Gillingham’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.03 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–4xG 1.15 for · 2.83 against
20 Oct · Home
Port Vale1–1xG 1.88 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.52 for · 1.54 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 1.38 against
Away side
Crewe Alexandra
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.08
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.20
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.11
- Venue attack rating
- 0.93
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crewe Alexandra’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Barnet1–1xG 0.72 for · 0.54 against
24 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–5xG 0.67 for · 1.98 against
20 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–2xG 0.93 for · 1.83 against
17 Oct · Home
Rochdale3–2xG 1.69 for · 0.75 against
10 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.61 for · 0.64 against
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.26.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Gillingham expected goals 1.21, Crewe Alexandra 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Gillingham goals down, Crewe Alexandra goals across.
| Gillingham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 35.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.2%
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 37.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Newport County v Swindon Town
Expected home goals 1.77 · expected away goals 0.91
Over 2.5 goals 50.0% (1/1) · both teams to score 49.5% (25/24)
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
23.3%
33/10 (4.30)
Away
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
Compare teams & see the workings: Newport County v Swindon Town
Home side
Newport County
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.45
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.09
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.36
- Venue attack rating
- 0.94
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newport County’s side.
30 Oct · Home
Chesterfield4–1xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.56 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.23 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
York City1–1xG 1.18 for · 1.57 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.61 against
Away side
Swindon Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swindon Town’s side.
Expected home goals 1.77 · expected away goals 0.91.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Newport County expected goals 1.77, Swindon Town 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newport County goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Newport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Newport County win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 19.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Accrington Stanley v Salford City
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.09
Over 2.5 goals 52.3% (21/23) · both teams to score 54.0% (17/20)
Home
51.1%
22/23 (1.96)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
24.7%
55/18 (4.06)
Compare teams & see the workings: Accrington Stanley v Salford City
Home side
Accrington Stanley
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.96
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.93
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.98
- Venue attack rating
- 1.15
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Accrington Stanley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.50 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Away
Rochdale5–0xG 2.19 for · 0.34 against
20 Oct · Away
York City1–1xG 1.07 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Home
Gillingham3–1xG 1.54 for · 0.52 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 0.23 against
Away side
Salford City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.31
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.39
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.47
- Venue attack rating
- 1.05
- Venue defence rating
- 0.92
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Salford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Exeter City2–1xG 0.73 for · 0.74 against
26 Oct · Away
Walsall4–2xG 2.39 for · 2.13 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Crawley Town2–1xG 1.75 for · 0.61 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.11 for · 0.25 against
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.09.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Accrington Stanley expected goals 1.68, Salford City 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Accrington Stanley goals down, Salford City goals across.
| Accrington Stanley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 51.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Salford City win, per cent
- 24.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Barnet v Port Vale
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 0.97
Over 2.5 goals 53.3% (7/8) · both teams to score 52.3% (21/23)
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
22.7%
58/17 (4.41)
Away
19.7%
49/12 (5.08)
Compare teams & see the workings: Barnet v Port Vale
Home side
Barnet
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.28
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.71
- Venue attack rating
- 1.27
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Barnet’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 0.72 against
27 Oct · Home
York City3–1xG 1.84 for · 0.47 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.63 for · 2.39 against
20 Oct · Home
Swindon Town1–3xG 3.77 for · 1.36 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 2.44 for · 1.12 against
Away side
Port Vale
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.73
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.76
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Port Vale’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Rochdale4–2xG 3.35 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Away
York City0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.06 against
20 Oct · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.75 for · 1.88 against
17 Oct · Home
Chesterfield1–0xG 0.27 for · 0.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–0xG 3.18 for · 0.45 against
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 0.97.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.84, Port Vale 0.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.36
Over 2.5 goals 55.4% (17/21) · both teams to score 58.4% (5/7)
Home
41.5%
24/17 (2.41)
Draw
24.7%
58/19 (4.05)
Away
33.8%
45/23 (2.96)
Compare teams & see the workings: Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
Home side
Cheltenham Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.29
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 1.38
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cheltenham Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.58 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.52 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 3.03 for · 2.08 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.30 against
10 Oct · Home
Salford City0–2xG 0.25 for · 1.11 against
Away side
Bristol Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.85
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.84
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.69
- Venue attack rating
- 0.81
- Venue defence rating
- 1.10
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bristol Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.19 for · 3.19 against
24 Oct · Home
Swindon Town0–0xG 1.51 for · 1.50 against
20 Oct · Home
Salford City1–2xG 1.51 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 1.65 against
10 Oct · Home
Barnet1–3xG 2.03 for · 2.10 against
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.54, Bristol Rovers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Bristol Rovers goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 41.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.23
Over 2.5 goals 57.0% (3/4) · both teams to score 58.3% (5/7)
Home
49.3%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
27.1%
62/23 (3.69)
Compare teams & see the workings: Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
Home side
Chesterfield
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.31
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.94
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.88
- Venue attack rating
- 1.29
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chesterfield’s side.
30 Oct · Away
xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.98 for · 0.67 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.34 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.35 for · 0.27 against
10 Oct · Away
Crawley Town2–2xG 1.58 for · 1.74 against
Away side
Shrewsbury Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.21
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.22
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.85
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Shrewsbury Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–2xG 1.83 for · 2.03 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.79 for · 1.62 against
20 Oct · Away
Crawley Town3–2xG 2.35 for · 1.64 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 0.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–1xG 1.17 for · 1.22 against
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.23.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 1.74, Shrewsbury Town 1.23: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Shrewsbury Town goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 49.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 27.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
